IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Transmission of the Global Financial Crisis to the Italian Economy


  • M. Caivano
  • L. Rodano
  • S. Siviero

    () (Banca d'Italia
    Banca d'Italia
    Banca d'Italia)


This paper carries out a counterfactual analysis of the Italian economy over the period 2008-2010, assuming that the global crisis hitting the economy never occurred. Under this circumstance, economic activity in Italy would have been higher by 6.5 percentage points at the end of 2010; crisis factors curtailed GDP growth by 10 percentage points, while economic policies mitigated the impact of crisis factors by 3.5 percentage points. Over three quarters of the impact of the crisis were “imported from abroad”; the worsening of domestic financing conditions and the deterioration of business and household climates played lesser ?though non negligible? roles.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Caivano & L. Rodano & S. Siviero, 2011. "The Transmission of the Global Financial Crisis to the Italian Economy," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 70(3), pages 1-32, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:gde:journl:gde_v70_n3_p1-32

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    More about this item


    cyclical fluctuations; counterfactual simulations; financial crisis; Italian economy;

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gde:journl:gde_v70_n3_p1-32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Erika Somma). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.