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The Transmission of the Global Financial Crisis to the Italian Economy

Author

Listed:
  • M. Caivano
  • L. Rodano
  • S. Siviero

    () (Banca d'Italia
    Banca d'Italia
    Banca d'Italia)

Abstract

This paper carries out a counterfactual analysis of the Italian economy over the period 2008-2010, assuming that the global crisis hitting the economy never occurred. Under this circumstance, economic activity in Italy would have been higher by 6.5 percentage points at the end of 2010; crisis factors curtailed GDP growth by 10 percentage points, while economic policies mitigated the impact of crisis factors by 3.5 percentage points. Over three quarters of the impact of the crisis were “imported from abroad”; the worsening of domestic financing conditions and the deterioration of business and household climates played lesser ?though non negligible? roles.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Caivano & L. Rodano & S. Siviero, 2011. "The Transmission of the Global Financial Crisis to the Italian Economy," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 70(3), pages 1-32, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:gde:journl:gde_v70_n3_p1-32
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    cyclical fluctuations; counterfactual simulations; financial crisis; Italian economy;

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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