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The Role of Forecasts in Social Security Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Daniele Franco

    () (Bank of Italy, Research Department)

  • Maria Rosaria Marino

    (Bank of Italy, Research Department)

Abstract

Long-term projections of pension expenditure are essential to evaluate the sustainability of social policies and potential reforms. The paper examines the main projections made in Italy and highlights the progress made and the problems remaining. It argues that forecasts played an important role in Italian pension policy, either postponing or enhancing reforms. The forecasts made in other European countries are also considered, as well as some significant revisions of the results of forecasting exercises. The paper emphasizes the importance of the attribution of responsibility and the frequency and transparency of projections. It argues that pension expenditure projections should be supplemented by estimates of the overall evolution of public finances and the economic situation of pensioners.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniele Franco & Maria Rosaria Marino, 2002. "The Role of Forecasts in Social Security Policy," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 61(2), pages 215-265, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:gde:journl:gde_v61_n2_p215-265
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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Buti & Sylvester Eijffinger & Daniele Franco, 2003. "Revisiting the Stability and Growth Pact: grand design or internal adjustment?," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 180, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    pension expenditure; social security; projections; forecasting procedures; sustainability;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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