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Driving Force Analysis of the Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Flash Floods in Sichuan Province

Author

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  • Yesen Liu

    (State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China)

  • Ximin Yuan

    (State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China)

  • Liang Guo

    (China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China)

  • Yaohuan Huang

    (Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

  • Xiaolei Zhang

    (China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China)

Abstract

Flash floods are important natural disasters in China that can result in casualties and property losses. In this paper, we present a quantitative approach to examine the driving factors of the spatiotemporal distribution of flash floods based on a geographical detector. The environmental background condition (elevation, slope, etc.), precipitation, and human activity factors, as well as changes in these factors, are investigated in Sichuan Province via a driving force analysis. The results show that heavy precipitation is the most important driver, with power of determinant ( PD ) values of 0.71 and 0.77 for the spatial distributions of flash floods from 1995 to 2004 and from 2005 to 2014, respectively. The PD s of population density are 0.65 and 0.78 in the same two periods, while those of elevation are 0.59 and 0.73. Precipitation variability is the most important driver of the spatiotemporal variability of flash floods, followed by GDP density and population density, with PD s of 0.48, 0.29, and 0.27, respectively. The results show that human activities and precipitation are the primary driving forces of the spatiotemporal variability of flash floods and should be the focus of flash flood prevention and forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Yesen Liu & Ximin Yuan & Liang Guo & Yaohuan Huang & Xiaolei Zhang, 2017. "Driving Force Analysis of the Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Flash Floods in Sichuan Province," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-17, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:9:p:1527-:d:110077
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ximin Yuan & Yesen Liu & Yaohuan Huang & Fuchang Tian, 2017. "An approach to quality validation of large-scale data from the Chinese Flash Flood Survey and Evaluation (CFFSE)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 89(2), pages 693-704, November.
    2. Paolo Billi & Yonas Alemu & Rossano Ciampalini, 2015. "Increased frequency of flash floods in Dire Dawa, Ethiopia: Change in rainfall intensity or human impact?," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(2), pages 1373-1394, March.
    3. Galateia Terti & Isabelle Ruin & Sandrine Anquetin & Jonathan Gourley, 2015. "Dynamic vulnerability factors for impact-based flash flood prediction," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(3), pages 1481-1497, December.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Junnan Xiong & Chongchong Ye & Weiming Cheng & Liang Guo & Chenghu Zhou & Xiaolei Zhang, 2019. "The Spatiotemporal Distribution of Flash Floods and Analysis of Partition Driving Forces in Yunnan Province," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-18, May.
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    4. Yesen Liu & Yaohuan Huang & Jinhong Wan & Zhenshan Yang & Xiaolei Zhang, 2020. "Analysis of Human Activity Impact on Flash Floods in China from 1950 to 2015," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
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