Multi-Scenario Prediction and Driving Factor Analysis of Fractional Vegetation Cover in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Urban Cluster

Rapid urbanization has increased pressure on ecosystems, posing serious risks to environmental quality and sustainable development. Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics and driving mechanisms of Fractional Vegetation Cover (FVC), a key indicator of ecological health, is essential for advancing high-quality regional development and ecological civilization. In this study, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), meteorological, and socio-economic data from 2000 to 2022 were used to analyze the changes and driving forces of FVC in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) urban cluster using a pixel dichotomy model and Partial Least Square–Structural Equation Modeling (PLS–SEM). The CA-Markov model was applied to predict future FVC patterns under different scenarios. The results show that FVC in the BTH increased from 0.462 to 0.576 between 2000 and 2022. However, this positive trend was accompanied by pronounced spatial differences: FVC increased significantly in the northwestern mountains, while it declined in urban built-up areas. PLS–SEM analysis further indicated that climate factors were the main drivers of FVC growth (0.903), whereas socioeconomic (−0.469) and topographic (−0.260) factors exerted limiting effects. Compared with 2022, FVC declined to varying degrees under all scenarios. Notably, the ecological protection scenario resulted in far less FVC degradation than the inertial development and economic priority scenarios. These findings provide scientific support for spatial planning and emphasize the importance of ecological protection policies in sustaining vegetation and promoting long-term sustainable development.