From Data Scarcity to Strategic Action: A Managerial Framework for Circular Economy Implementation in Mediterranean Small Towns

Data scarcity hampers the implementation of circular economy (CE) in rural historical small towns (HSTs) where traditional agricultural practices persist outside formal monitoring systems. In this regard, this study proposes and tests an estimation framework to quantify agricultural waste flows and energy recovery potential. The methodology combines waste generation coefficients from peer-reviewed literature with administrative data to generate actionable CE assessments. Application to four Sicilian HSTs within the Local Action Group (LAG) “Terre dell’Etna e dell’Alcantara” exhibits substantial waste generation potential despite their small size. The agricultural enterprises generate an estimated 6930–7130 tons of annual agricultural waste under moderate production scenarios, comprising grape pomace (3250 tons), pruning residues (3030 tons), and mixed processing wastes (650–850 tons). The energy recovery potential ranges from 20–30 TJ through direct combustion to 4.9–8.1 TJ via anaerobic digestion. Sensitivity analysis indicates balanced contributions from all three key parameters (enterprise density, yields, and waste coefficients), each accounting for 31–35% of output variance. The framework provides resource-constrained municipalities with a cost-effective tool for preliminary CE assessment, enabling identification of priority interventions without expensive primary data collection. From a managerial perspective, local administrators can leverage this tool to transform routine administrative data into actionable CE strategies.