Risk Assessment of Geological Hazards in Dawukou, Shizuishan City Based on the Information Value Model

Geological hazards pose significant threats to ecological stability, human lives, and infrastructure, necessitating precise and robust risk assessment methodologies. This study evaluates geological hazard risks in Dawukou District, Shizuishan City, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, using the information value (IV) model. The study systematically identifies susceptibility, hazard, and vulnerability factors influencing geological disaster risks by integrating diverse datasets encompassing geological conditions, meteorological parameters, and anthropogenic activities. The key findings reveal that hilly landforms, slope gradients, and vegetation indices are the dominant contributors to hazard development. Additional factors, including lithology, fault proximity, and precipitation, were also found to play critical roles. The results categorize the district into four risk zones: high-risk areas (1.55% of the total area), moderate-risk areas (10.16%), Low-risk areas (23.32%), and very-low-risk areas (64.97%). These zones exhibit a strong spatial correlation with geomorphic features, tectonic activity, and human engineering interventions, such as mining and infrastructure development. High-risk zones are concentrated near mining regions and fault lines with steep slopes, while low-risk zones are predominantly in flat plains and urban centers. The reliability of the risk assessment was validated through cross-referenced geological hazard occurrence data and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, achieving a high predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.88). The study provides actionable insights for disaster prevention, mitigation strategies, and urban planning, offering a scientific basis for resource allocation and sustainable development. The methodology and findings serve as a replicable framework for geological hazard risk assessments in similar regions facing diverse environmental and anthropogenic challenges.