Evaluation of Low-Carbon Development in the Construction Industry and Forecast of Trends: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta Region

The low-carbon economy is becoming a critical global development paradigm. As the world’s largest carbon emitter, China’s transition toward low-carbon practices in its construction sector is pivotal for achieving its carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. Research into the decarbonization pathways and driving factors of this energy- and emission-intensive industry is essential. It not only reduces the sector’s dependence on traditional energy sources but also provides vital support for China’s national energy conservation and emissions reduction strategy. As the construction industry transitions toward low-carbon sustainability, traditional unidimensional assessments based solely on socio-economic and ecological factors are inadequate. This study proposed an integrated evaluation framework using the CRITIC–TOPSIS model, incorporating technological, social, economic, industrial, and energy dimensions. Panel data on energy consumption in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region were employed to assess the construction sector’s low-carbon development level and an ARIMA model was utilized to forecast its low-carbon potential. The results indicate that from 2011 to 2022, the sector’s total carbon emissions followed a unimodal trajectory (initial increase followed by decline), with indirect emissions exceeding 90%, primarily from cement, steel, and other building materials. The regional construction industry exhibited a unimodal trajectory in low-carbon development, characterized by an initial increase followed by a decline. Average construction carbon emissions reached 41,637.5877 million tons, with a transient surge (69.67% increase) occurring between 2011 and 2014. This was followed by a 41.83% reduction from 2014 to 2022, with emissions projected to stabilize and gradually increase through 2030. Technological and industrial factors constitute the primary drivers of sectoral low carbon. Quantitative analysis identified the capital utilization rate, industrial structure, and construction industry gross domestic product (GDP) as key impediments to low-carbon transition, with average impedance degrees of 8.713%, 12.280%, and 12.697%, respectively. This study has revealed the key driving factors for the low-carbon development of the construction industry, extending theoretical frameworks for construction industry sustainability. These findings offer empirical support for formulating regionally differentiated carbon mitigation policies.