Climate Change Risk Perception, Adaptive Capacity and Psychological Distance in Urban Vulnerability: A District-Level Case Study in Istanbul, Türkiye

Urban climate resilience is shaped by both direct exposure to environmental risks and cognitive, socioeconomic and institutional factors. This study investigates climate change risk perception (CCRP), psychological distance (PD) and adaptive capacity (AC) across five districts of Istanbul: Beşiktaş, Kadıköy, Kağıthane, Şişli and Üsküdar, using a structured survey (sample size = 500) and advanced multivariate statistical modeling to explore the factors influencing adaptive behavior. To evaluate perceptual and behavioral responses to climate threats, the study constructs both equal-weighted indices and indices derived through principal component analysis (PCA). ANOVA and chi-square tests reveal significant district-level differences in risk perception and adaptation engagement. PCA results validate the internal structure of the indices by identifying latent dimensions such as institutional confidence, emotional proximity and self-efficacy. Correlation and regression analyses confirm that CCRP and PD significantly predict AC in theoretically meaningful patterns. Structural equation modeling (SEM) demonstrates both direct and indirect pathways linking climate risk perception to adaptive capacity, highlighting the complex interplay of these variables. Mediation analysis shows that PD partially mediates the CCRP–AC relationship, accounting for 39.7% of the total effect. Cluster analysis identifies distinct cognitive profiles where proactive adaptation behaviors are more common in affluent districts while disengagement is more prevalent in low-income areas. These findings underscore the importance of localized communication efforts, institutional credibility and financial equity in shaping effective climate adaptation. By integrating perceptual and structural dimensions, the study advances a multidimensional understanding of urban climate readiness and offers empirical guidance for socially equitable resilience policy design.