Coupled Coordination and Influencing Factors of Tourism Urbanization and Resident Well-Being in the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration, China

Tourism urbanization has become an important pathway for promoting regional economic growth, optimizing urban spatial structures and enhancing residents’ quality of life, especially in the context of sustainable development. Balancing the relationship between tourism urbanization and residents’ well-being in China’s Central Plains Urban Agglomeration is a key objective for the promotion of sustainable regional development in the context of rapid tourism development. However, few studies have quantitatively explored the spatiotemporal coupling dynamics between tourism urbanization and residents’ well-being at the urban agglomeration scale, leaving a significant gap in understanding their integrated evolution. Therefore, in this study, we constructed an evaluation index system for tourism urbanization and residents’ well-being. Next, we explored the coupling relationship between tourism urbanization and residents’ well-being and its influencing factors in the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration from 2005 to 2022 via the coupling coordination degree and random forest approaches. The study’s three major findings are as follows: (1) First, in terms of development level, the tourism urbanization of the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration from 2005 to 2019 generally showed a steady upwards trend, and the well-being of residents as a whole showed a steady development trend; however, there were significant regional differences in the level of development. The spatial differentiation between tourism urbanization and residents’ well-being was characterized by “high in the west and low in the east” and “high in the middle and low in the surroundings”, and the degree of spatial differentiation tended to gradually narrow over time. (2) In terms of the level of coupling coordination, the overall coordination between tourism urbanization and residents’ well-being in the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration increased annually and reached the stages of running-in and high coordination. (3) The key factors affecting the coupled coordination of tourism urbanization and residents’ well-being in the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration differed significantly over time. The importance of the number of tourists, policy support, and fiscal balance ratio increased significantly over time, whereas the importance of the vegetation index and the distance to the nearest provincial capital city decreased. These findings have valuable implications for urban planning, governance optimization, and the formulation of sustainable development strategies, highlighting the need to strengthen resilience and promote synergistic growth between tourism development and residents’ well-being.