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Detection Framework of Abrupt Changes and Trends in Rainfall Erosivity in Three Gorges Reservoir, China

Author

Listed:
  • Qian Feng

    (Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute, Wuhan 430015, China
    Research Center on Mountain Torrent and Geologic Disaster Prevention, Ministry of Water Resources, Wuhan 430010, China)

  • Linyao Dong

    (Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute, Wuhan 430015, China
    Research Center on Mountain Torrent and Geologic Disaster Prevention, Ministry of Water Resources, Wuhan 430010, China)

  • Jingjun Liu

    (Wuhan Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau, Wuhan 430074, China)

  • Honghu Liu

    (Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute, Wuhan 430015, China
    State Key Lab Soil Erosion Dryland Farming Loess Plateau, Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Bureau, Xianyang 712100, China)

Abstract

Rainfall erosivity is commonly used to estimate the probability of soil erosion caused by rainfall. The accurate detection of temporal changes in rainfall erosivity and the identification of abrupt changes and trends are important for understanding the physical causes of variation. In this study, a detection framework is introduced to identify temporal changes in rainfall erosivity time series as follows: (i) The significance of time series variation of rainfall erosivity is assessed based on the Hurst coefficient and divided into three levels: None, medium, and high. (ii) The detection of abrupt changes (Mann–Kendall, Moving T, and Bayesian tests) and trends (Spearman and Kendall rank correlation tests) of variate series and the correlation coefficient between the variation component and the original series is calculated. (iii) The modified series is obtained by preferentially eliminating the variation component (trend or change point) with larger correlation coefficients. (iv) We substituted the modified series into steps i to iii until the correlation coefficient was not significant. This framework is used to analyze the variation of rainfall erosivity in the Three Gorges Reservoir, China. The results showed that by using traditional methods, both an increasing trend and an upward change point were observed in Zigui station. However, after the upward change point was deducted from the annual rainfall erosivity series R ( t ), the resultant R m ( t ) showed no statistically significant trend. Trend analysis should be performed considering the existence of an abrupt change to assess the long-term changes in rainfall erosivity series; otherwise, it would result in the wrong conclusion. In addition, the change points detected in the R m ( t ) varied with the methods. Compared with the single-test method, the proposed framework can effectively reduce uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Qian Feng & Linyao Dong & Jingjun Liu & Honghu Liu, 2023. "Detection Framework of Abrupt Changes and Trends in Rainfall Erosivity in Three Gorges Reservoir, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-15, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:3:p:2062-:d:1043574
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Turner & Hua Lu & Ian White & John C. King & Tony Phillips & J. Scott Hosking & Thomas J. Bracegirdle & Gareth J. Marshall & Robert Mulvaney & Pranab Deb, 2016. "Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability," Nature, Nature, vol. 535(7612), pages 411-415, July.
    2. Shengzhi Huang & Jianxia Chang & Qiang Huang & Yimin Wang & Yutong Chen, 2014. "Spatio-Temporal Changes in Potential Evaporation Based on Entropy Across the Wei River Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(13), pages 4599-4613, October.
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