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Demographic Aspects of Urban Shrinkage in Serbia: Trajectory, Variety, and Drivers of Shrinking Cities

Author

Listed:
  • Danica Djurkin

    (Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia)

  • Marija Antić

    (Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia)

  • Dejan Ž. Djordjević

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Nis, 18105 Nis, Serbia)

Abstract

Many European countries have faced the process of urban shrinkage in recent decades. Due to the various theoretical aspects of urban shrinkage, there are numerous approaches to the interpretation of this process. The most widely accepted of these refers to the demographic component as the starting point for defining this phenomenon, with the decline of the total population as the main indicator. The demographic shrinkage of cities in Serbia is a process that has been in place since the 1960s, with the dynamics of spatial-demographic and socioeconomic transformation during the post-socialist transition having exacerbated urban shrinkage. As a result, over 80% of urban settlements are affected by it. This paper identifies the trajectory and spatio-temporal patterns of the intensity and dynamics of urban shrinkage for the period from 1961 to 2022. The aim of this work is to show the diversity of shrinking cities and to explore the driving forces behind this process in Serbia. In this study, we conducted an analysis of population trends in 167 urban settlements in Serbia. Further analysis included the identification of contrasting spatio-temporal and demographic dynamic patterns characterized by either natural losses or out-migration. Due to the complex urban trajectories, a typology was created that distinguishes four different types of shrinking cities: continuously shrinking cities, episodically shrinking cities, recently shrinking cities, and resurgent cities. The results are important to achieving a better understanding of how patterns of local population trends change over time and space. The result will thus be a step towards explaining the main demographic factors causing population change and inter- and intra-regional differences between shrinking cities in Serbia, as well as towards examining urban renewal opportunities in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Danica Djurkin & Marija Antić & Dejan Ž. Djordjević, 2023. "Demographic Aspects of Urban Shrinkage in Serbia: Trajectory, Variety, and Drivers of Shrinking Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-25, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:22:p:15961-:d:1280723
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ana Paula Barreira & Dora Agapito & Thomas Panagopoulos & Maria Helena Guimarães, 2017. "Exploring residential satisfaction in shrinking cities: a decision-tree approach," Urban Research & Practice, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 156-177, April.
    2. Bastian Heider, 2019. "What drives urban population growth and shrinkage in postsocialist East Germany?," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(4), pages 1460-1486, December.
    3. Thorsten Wiechmann & Karina M. Pallagst, 2012. "Urban shrinkage in Germany and the USA: A Comparison of Transformation Patterns and Local Strategies," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 261-280, March.
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