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Sustainable Ambient Environment to Prevent Future Outbreaks: How Ambient Environment Relates to COVID-19 Local Transmission in Lima, Peru

Author

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  • Tsai-Chi Kuo

    (Department of Industrial Management, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology, Taipei 10607, Taiwan
    Artificial Intelligence for Operations Management Research Center, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology, Taipei 10607, Taiwan)

  • Ana Maria Pacheco

    (Department of Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Chung Yuan Christian University, 200 Chung-Pei Road, Zhongli 320, Taiwan
    Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, Chung Yuan Christian University, 200 Chung-Pei Road, Zhongli 320, Taiwan)

  • Aditya Prana Iswara

    (Department of Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Chung Yuan Christian University, 200 Chung-Pei Road, Zhongli 320, Taiwan
    Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, Chung Yuan Christian University, 200 Chung-Pei Road, Zhongli 320, Taiwan)

  • Denny Dermawan

    (Department of Waste Treatment Engineering, Shipbuilding Institute of Polytechnic Surabaya, Sukolilo 60111, Indonesia)

  • Gerry Andhikaputra

    (Department of Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Chung Yuan Christian University, 200 Chung-Pei Road, Zhongli 320, Taiwan)

  • Lin-Han Chiang Hsieh

    (Department of Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Chung Yuan Christian University, 200 Chung-Pei Road, Zhongli 320, Taiwan
    Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, Chung Yuan Christian University, 200 Chung-Pei Road, Zhongli 320, Taiwan
    Center for Environmental Risk Management (CERM), Chung Yuan Christian University, 200 Chung-Pei Road, Zhongli 320, Taiwan)

Abstract

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), universally recognized as COVID-19, is currently is a global issue. Our study uses multivariate regression for determining the relationship between the ambient environment and COVID-19 cases in Lima. We also forecast the pattern trajectory of COVID-19 cases with variables using an Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA). There is a significant association between ambient temperature and PM 10 and COVID-19 cases, while no significant correlation has been seen for PM 2.5 . All variables in the multivariate regression model have R 2 = 0.788, which describes a significant exposure to COVID-19 cases in Lima. ARIMA (1,1,1), during observation time of PM 2.5 , PM 10 , and average temperature, is found to be suitable for forecasting COVID-19 cases in Lima. This result indicates that the expected high particle concentration and low ambient temperature in the coming season will further facilitate the transmission of the coronavirus if there is no other policy intervention. A suggested sustainable policy related to ambient environment and the lessons learned from different countries to prevent future outbreaks are also discussed in this study.

Suggested Citation

  • Tsai-Chi Kuo & Ana Maria Pacheco & Aditya Prana Iswara & Denny Dermawan & Gerry Andhikaputra & Lin-Han Chiang Hsieh, 2020. "Sustainable Ambient Environment to Prevent Future Outbreaks: How Ambient Environment Relates to COVID-19 Local Transmission in Lima, Peru," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-13, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:21:p:9277-:d:441811
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. T. Ozaki, 1977. "On the Order Determination of Arima Models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 26(3), pages 290-301, November.
    4. Gaetano Perone, 2020. "An ARIMA model to forecast the spread and the final size of COVID-2019 epidemic in Italy," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 20/07, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    5. Yuan Liu & Zhi Ning & Yu Chen & Ming Guo & Yingle Liu & Nirmal Kumar Gali & Li Sun & Yusen Duan & Jing Cai & Dane Westerdahl & Xinjin Liu & Ke Xu & Kin-fai Ho & Haidong Kan & Qingyan Fu & Ke Lan, 2020. "Aerodynamic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 in two Wuhan hospitals," Nature, Nature, vol. 582(7813), pages 557-560, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hyundong Nam & Taewoo Nam, 2021. "Exploring Strategic Directions of Pandemic Crisis Management: A Text Analysis of World Economic Forum COVID-19 Reports," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-19, April.

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