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Modeling Subtropical Forest Changes under Climate Change and Close-to-Nature Silviculture: Is There a Tipping Point in an Uncertain Future in Southern China?

Author

Listed:
  • Zhuo Wu

    (School of Geography and Remote Sensing, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006, China)

  • Erfu Dai

    (Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

  • Wenchuan Guan

    (School of Geography and Remote Sensing, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006, China)

Abstract

Subtropical forests face pressure from both rapidly changing climate and increasing harvest activity in southern China. However, the interactive effects of various spatial processes on forests are not well known. The objective of the present study was to answer the question of how forest aboveground biomass (AGB) changes under alternative climate change and harvesting scenarios and to determine whether there will be a tipping point for forest AGB before 2300. Our simulation results show that, although total forest AGB did not reach a tipping point before 2300 under possible climate change and harvesting scenarios, the slope of the total forest AGB showed a decreasing trend around 2100 and 2200. Moderate climate warming was conducive to AGB accumulation, except for in the high emissions Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) scenario. Our results also indicate that timber harvesting is adaptable to the accumulation of biomass under climate change scenarios. Harvesting intensity was a key variable affecting forest AGB more than harvesting frequency. Our findings will help develop more sustainable forest management strategies that can adapt to potential climate change scenarios, as well as determining the effectiveness of implementing alternative forest harvesting policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhuo Wu & Erfu Dai & Wenchuan Guan, 2020. "Modeling Subtropical Forest Changes under Climate Change and Close-to-Nature Silviculture: Is There a Tipping Point in an Uncertain Future in Southern China?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-14, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:17:p:6992-:d:404979
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Zhuo Wu & Quansheng Ge & Erfu Dai, 2017. "Modeling the Relative Contributions of Land Use Change and Harvest to Forest Landscape Change in the Taihe County, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-17, April.
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