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Estimation of the River Flow Synchronicity in the Upper Indus River Basin Using Copula Functions

Author

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  • Leszek Sobkowiak

    (Institute of Physical Geography and Environmental Planning, Adam Mickiewicz University, Krygowskiego 10, 61-680 Poznań, Poland)

  • Adam Perz

    (Institute of Physical Geography and Environmental Planning, Adam Mickiewicz University, Krygowskiego 10, 61-680 Poznań, Poland)

  • Dariusz Wrzesiński

    (Institute of Physical Geography and Environmental Planning, Adam Mickiewicz University, Krygowskiego 10, 61-680 Poznań, Poland)

  • Muhammad Abrar Faiz

    (School of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, Heilongjiang, China)

Abstract

In this study, on the basis of the maximum and mean annual values of flows, dependencies between flows recorded in seven water gauges located in the upper part of the Indus River Basin (IRB) in Pakistan were analyzed. First, the non-parametric Mann–Kendall (M–K) test was used to detect trends in the flows. Next, the Pearson’s correlation coefficient was applied. Then, the selected copulas were used to find joint distributions of the studied time series. In the next stage, the degrees of synchronous and asynchronous occurrence of, respectively, the annual maximum (AMAXF) and mean annual flows (MAF) were calculated. The study revealed that correlations between the flows in selected gauge stations were very strong and statistically significant. These results were confirmed by the synchronicity analysis carried out with the help of the copula functions. The highest relationship was detected in the case of gauges Besham Qila and Kachura on the Indus mainstream, while the lowest was detected in gauges Besham Qila and Naltar on the Naltar River. These findings can be of high practical value in the field of sustainable water resource management, including for flood protection, agricultural water supply, reservoir water storage, and hydropower generation in the IRB.

Suggested Citation

  • Leszek Sobkowiak & Adam Perz & Dariusz Wrzesiński & Muhammad Abrar Faiz, 2020. "Estimation of the River Flow Synchronicity in the Upper Indus River Basin Using Copula Functions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-18, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:12:p:5122-:d:375297
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Khan, A. R., 2001. "Searching evidence for climatic change: Analysis of hydro-meteorological time series in the Upper Indus Basin," IWMI Working Papers H028687, International Water Management Institute.
    3. Lingling Zhao & Jun Xia & Leszek Sobkowiak & Zhonggen Wang & Fengrui Guo, 2012. "Spatial Pattern Characterization and Multivariate Hydrological Frequency Analysis of Extreme Precipitation in the Pearl River Basin, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(12), pages 3619-3637, September.
    4. Kumar Gaurav & R. Sinha & P. Panda, 2011. "The Indus flood of 2010 in Pakistan: a perspective analysis using remote sensing data," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 59(3), pages 1815-1826, December.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Yueqiu Wu & Liping Wang & Yi Wang & Yanke Zhang & Jiajie Wu & Qiumei Ma & Xiaoqing Liang & Bin He, 2021. "Risk Analysis for Short-Term Operation of the Power Generation in Cascade Reservoirs Considering Multivariate Reservoir Inflow Forecast Errors," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-16, March.

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