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Economic Voting and Electoral Behavior in 2024 European Parliament Elections: A Quantitative Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Silviu Grecu

    (Department of Political Sciences, International Relations and European Studies, “Al.I.Cuza” University of Iași, 700506 Iasi, Romania)

  • Simona Vranceanu

    (Department of Political Sciences, International Relations and European Studies, “Al.I.Cuza” University of Iași, 700506 Iasi, Romania)

  • Horia Chiriac

    (Department of Communication Sciences and Public Relations, “Al.I.Cuza” University of Iași, 700506 Iasi, Romania)

Abstract

This study evaluates the link between economic voting and electoral behavior in the 2024 European Parliament (EP) elections. This study is grounded in both selective perception and economic voting theories, examining how different independent factors could interact with electoral behavior. In this regard, the research aims to achieve several research directions: (i) the evaluation of the statistical differences in voters’ turnout in 2024 EP elections by geographical regions; (ii) the analysis of the interaction between voters’ perceptions of the current or future economic situations and voter turnout; (iii) the analysis of the interaction between objective economic conditions and electoral behavior. Using both multiple linear regression and logistic models, the study highlights that voter turnout and incumbent party reelection are significantly related to voters’ perceptions of the current or future state of the national economy. The results reveal that regional differences in voter turnout are largely explained by significant differences in voters’ economic perceptions, while the decision to vote for the incumbent party is driven by future economic expectations. The empirical findings underscore the pivotal role played by subjective perceptions in shaping electoral behavior, illustrating that political attitudes and behaviors are derived from personal interpretation of the national economic situations. Beyond theoretical perspectives that highlight the link between psychological processes and voting, the paper might have several practical implications for academics or decision makers interested in the field of electoral behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Silviu Grecu & Simona Vranceanu & Horia Chiriac, 2025. "Economic Voting and Electoral Behavior in 2024 European Parliament Elections: A Quantitative Approach," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-29, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jscscx:v:14:y:2025:i:4:p:226-:d:1627403
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Okolikj & Stephen Quinlan, 2016. "Context Matters: Economic Voting in the 2009 and 2014 European Parliament Elections," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 4(1), pages 145-166.
    2. Adams, James, 1999. "An Assessment of Voting Systems under the Proximity and Directional Models of the Vote," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 98(1-2), pages 131-151, January.
    3. Martin Okolikj & Stephen Quinlan, 2016. "Context Matters: Economic Voting in the 2009 and 2014 European Parliament Elections," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 4(1), pages 145-166.
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