Waves of Structural Deglobalization: A World-Systems Perspective

Structural globalization has been both a cycle and an upward trend as periods of greater global integration have been followed by periods of deglobalization on a long-term stair-step toward the greater connectedness of humanity. Since 2008, the world-system may once again be entering another phase of structural deglobalization as the contradictions of capitalist neoliberalism, environmental degradation and uneven development have provoked different kinds of anti-globalization populism, rivalry among contending powers, trade wars and policies and social movements intended to mitigate the effects of anthropogenic climate change. This plateauing and possible downturn in economic connectedness is occurring in the context of U.S. hegemonic decline and the emergence of a more multipolar configuration of economic and political power among states. The combination of greater communications connectivity and greater awareness of North/South inequalities, as well as destabilizing conflicts and climate change, have provoked waves of refugee migrations and political reactions against immigrants. The result has been a period of chaos that is similar in some ways (but different in others) from what occurred during the last half of the 19th century and the first half of the 20th century. This study investigates the question of whether the world-system is indeed once again entering another period of economic deglobalization and compares the current period with what happened in the 19th and 20th centuries to specify the similarities and the differences. We conclude that, based on changes in the level of economic connectedness since 2008, it is still too soon to tell for sure if the world-system is entering another period of deglobalization, but the important similarities between the recent period and earlier periods of deglobalization make it likely that the system is now in another deglobalization or plateau phase.