IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v12y2024i8p1241-d1379171.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling the Propagation of Infectious Diseases across the Air Transport Network: A Bayesian Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Pablo Quirós Corte

    (Department of Aerospace Systems, Air Transport and Airports, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain)

  • Javier Cano

    (Department of Computer Science and Statistics, Rey Juan Carlos University, 28933 Madrid, Spain)

  • Eduardo Sánchez Ayra

    (Department of Aerospace Systems, Air Transport and Airports, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain)

  • Chaitanya Joshi

    (Department of Statistics, University of Auckland, Auckland 1010, New Zealand)

  • Víctor Fernando Gómez Comendador

    (Department of Aerospace Systems, Air Transport and Airports, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain)

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, continues to impact the world even three years after its outbreak. International border closures and health alerts severely affected the air transport industry, resulting in substantial financial losses. This study analyzes the global data on infected individuals alongside aircraft types, flight durations, and passenger flows. Using a Bayesian framework, we forecast the risk of infection during commercial flights and its potential spread across an air transport network. Our model allows us to explore the effect of mitigation measures, such as closing individual routes or airports, reducing aircraft occupancy, or restricting access for infected passengers, on disease propagation, while allowing the air industry to operate at near-normal levels. Our novel approach combines dynamic network modeling with discrete event simulation. A real-case study at major European hubs illustrates our methodology.

Suggested Citation

  • Pablo Quirós Corte & Javier Cano & Eduardo Sánchez Ayra & Chaitanya Joshi & Víctor Fernando Gómez Comendador, 2024. "Modeling the Propagation of Infectious Diseases across the Air Transport Network: A Bayesian Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-25, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:12:y:2024:i:8:p:1241-:d:1379171
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/12/8/1241/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/12/8/1241/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter Lloyd & Robert Dixon, 2021. "Modelling the Spread of the Coronavirus: A View from Economics," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 54(1), pages 36-56, March.
    2. Lieshout, Rogier, 2012. "Measuring the size of an airport’s catchment area," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 27-34.
    3. Colin J. Carlson & Gregory F. Albery & Cory Merow & Christopher H. Trisos & Casey M. Zipfel & Evan A. Eskew & Kevin J. Olival & Noam Ross & Shweta Bansal, 2022. "Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk," Nature, Nature, vol. 607(7919), pages 555-562, July.
    4. Christos Nicolaides & Demetris Avraam & Luis Cueto‐Felgueroso & Marta C. González & Ruben Juanes, 2020. "Hand‐Hygiene Mitigation Strategies Against Global Disease Spreading through the Air Transportation Network," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(4), pages 723-740, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chunrong Mi & Liang Ma & Mengyuan Yang & Xinhai Li & Shai Meiri & Uri Roll & Oleksandra Oskyrko & Daniel Pincheira-Donoso & Lilly P. Harvey & Daniel Jablonski & Barbod Safaei-Mahroo & Hanyeh Ghaffari , 2023. "Global Protected Areas as refuges for amphibians and reptiles under climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Qiang Wang & Yuanfan Li & Rongrong Li, 2024. "Rethinking the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis across 214 countries: the impacts of 12 economic, institutional, technological, resource, and social factors," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-19, December.
    3. Lenaerts, Bert & Allroggen, Florian & Malina, Robert, 2021. "The economic impact of aviation: A review on the role of market access," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    4. Joseph L.-H. Tsui & Rosario Evans Pena & Monika Moir & Rhys P. D. Inward & Eduan Wilkinson & James Emmanuel San & Jenicca Poongavanan & Sumali Bajaj & Bernardo Gutierrez & Abhishek Dasgupta & Tulio Ol, 2024. "Impacts of climate change-related human migration on infectious diseases," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 14(8), pages 793-802, August.
    5. Doerr, Luisa & Dorn, Florian & Gaebler, Stefanie & Potrafke, Niklas, 2020. "How new airport infrastructure promotes tourism: evidence from a synthetic control approach in German regions," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 54(10), pages 1402-1412.
    6. Lieshout, Rogier & Malighetti, Paolo & Redondi, Renato & Burghouwt, Guillaume, 2016. "The competitive landscape of air transport in Europe," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 68-82.
    7. Bi, Hui & Gao, Hui & Li, Aoyong & Ye, Zhirui, 2024. "Using topic modeling to unravel the nuanced effects of built environment on bicycle-metro integrated usage," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    8. Mattia Mazzoli & Riccardo Gallotti & Filippo Privitera & Pere Colet & José J. Ramasco, 2023. "Spatial immunization to abate disease spreading in transportation hubs," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    9. Borsati, Mattia & Albalate, Daniel, 2020. "On the modal shift from motorway to high-speed rail: evidence from Italy," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 145-164.
    10. Magdalena Meyer & Dominik W. Melville & Heather J. Baldwin & Kerstin Wilhelm & Evans Ewald Nkrumah & Ebenezer K. Badu & Samuel Kingsley Oppong & Nina Schwensow & Adam Stow & Peter Vallo & Victor M. Co, 2024. "Bat species assemblage predicts coronavirus prevalence," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    11. Zijlstra, Toon, 2020. "A border effect in airport choice: Evidence from Western Europe," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    12. Philipp Breidenbach, 2020. "Ready for take-off? The economic effects of regional airport expansions in Germany," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(8), pages 1084-1097, July.
    13. Choi, Jong Hae & Wang, Kun & Xia, Wenyi & Zhang, Anming, 2019. "Determining factors of air passengers’ transfer airport choice in the Southeast Asia – North America market: Managerial and policy implications," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 203-216.
    14. Fuellhart, Kurt & O’Connor, Kevin & Woltemade, Christopher, 2013. "Route-level passenger variation within three multi-airport regions in the USA," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 171-180.
    15. Dziedzic, Marcin & Njoya, Eric T. & Warnock-Smith, David & Hubbard, Nick, 2020. "Determinants of air traffic volumes and structure at small European airports," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    16. Samanci, Simge & Didem Atalay, Kumru & Bahar Isin, Feride, 2021. "Focusing on the big picture while observing the concerns of both managers and passengers in the post-covid era," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    17. de Paula Balan Bruno & da Cunha Maria Cláudia Ferreira & da Cunha Renan Cipriano & Halawi Leila, 2022. "Aviation supply and demand in the São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro systems evolution: An exploratory study," Journal of Economics and Management, Sciendo, vol. 44(1), pages 393-419, January.
    18. World Bank, 2022. "Putting Pandemics Behind Us," World Bank Publications - Reports 38200, The World Bank Group.
    19. Kölker, Katrin & Lütjens, Klaus & Gollnick, Volker, 2024. "Analyzing global passenger flows based on choice modeling in the air transportation system," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    20. Timothy M. Lenton & Chi Xu & Jesse F. Abrams & Ashish Ghadiali & Sina Loriani & Boris Sakschewski & Caroline Zimm & Kristie L. Ebi & Robert R. Dunn & Jens-Christian Svenning & Marten Scheffer, 2023. "Quantifying the human cost of global warming," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 6(10), pages 1237-1247, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:12:y:2024:i:8:p:1241-:d:1379171. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.