IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v14y2025i1p149-d1565633.html

Projecting Water Yield Amidst Rapid Urbanization: A Case Study of the Taihu Lake Basin

Author

Listed:
  • Rui Zhou

    (Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Processes in Watershed, College of Geography and Remote Sensing, Hohai University, Nanjing 211000, China)

  • Yanan Zhou

    (Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Processes in Watershed, College of Geography and Remote Sensing, Hohai University, Nanjing 211000, China)

  • Weiwei Zhu

    (Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

  • Li Feng

    (Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Processes in Watershed, College of Geography and Remote Sensing, Hohai University, Nanjing 211000, China)

  • Lumeng Liu

    (Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Processes in Watershed, College of Geography and Remote Sensing, Hohai University, Nanjing 211000, China)

Abstract

Changes in land cover and land use (LULC) can impact water availability by altering the structure and functioning of land ecosystems. Accurately projecting the impacts of LULC on water yield (WY) is of utmost importance for regional landscape management. Taking the rapidly urbanizing Taihu Lake Basin (TLB) as an example, coupled with the PLUS-InVEST model, three scenarios of a natural development (ND) scenario, urban development (UD) scenario, and ecological protection (EP) scenario were set to simulate the response mechanisms of land use changes for WY and the influence of policy-making on the water conservation capacity of river basins. (1) During 2000 and 2020, the Taihu Lake Basin (TLB) experienced rapid urbanization, which was evident in the conversion of forest and cropland for urban development. (2) From 2000 to 2020, the TLB’s WY first decreased and then increased, ranging from 201.52 × 10 8 m 3 to 242.70 × 10 8 m 3 . Spatially, an uneven distribution pattern of WY depth emerged, with mountainous and hilly regions exhibiting higher WY compared to plain areas. Temporally, changes in total WY were primarily influenced by precipitation, while areas with increased WY showed a certain correlation with regions experiencing an expansion of construction land. (3) By 2030, the TLB will continue to expand construction land under the UD scenario, while the area of ecological land will expand under the EP scenario. WY is expected to vary across scenarios, with the highest yield observed under the UD scenario, followed by the ND scenario, while the EP scenario exhibits the lowest yield. These findings can offer scientifically informed insights and guidance for future WY changes, carrying substantial effects for maintaining ecological preservation and promoting high-quality development in the TLB.

Suggested Citation

  • Rui Zhou & Yanan Zhou & Weiwei Zhu & Li Feng & Lumeng Liu, 2025. "Projecting Water Yield Amidst Rapid Urbanization: A Case Study of the Taihu Lake Basin," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-22, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:1:p:149-:d:1565633
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/1/149/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/1/149/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Posner, Stephen & Verutes, Gregory & Koh, Insu & Denu, Doug & Ricketts, Taylor, 2016. "Global use of ecosystem service models," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 131-141.
    2. Sun, Xiang & Xiong, Shu & Zhu, Xiaojing & Zhu, Xiaodong & Li, Yangfan & Li, B. Larry, 2015. "A new indices system for evaluating ecological-economic-social performances of wetland restorations and its application to Taihu Lake Basin, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 295(C), pages 216-226.
    3. Howarth, Richard B. & Farber, Stephen, 2002. "Accounting for the value of ecosystem services," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 421-429, June.
    4. repec:sae:envval:v:17:y:2008:i:2:p:239-257 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Xinxin Yang & Xinchen Gu & Pei Zhang & Jing Liu & Wenjia Zhang & Aihua Long, 2024. "Assessment of the Impacts of Climate and Land Use Changes on Water Yield in the Ebinur Lake Basin," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-20, August.
    6. Zhicheng Zhang & Hongjuan Zhang & Juan Feng & Yirong Wang & Kang Liu, 2021. "Evaluation of Social Values for Ecosystem Services in Urban Riverfront Space Based on the SolVES Model: A Case Study of the Fenghe River, Xi’an, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(5), pages 1-26, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kaidong Lu & Yong Liu & Yintang Wang & Tingting Cui & Jiaxing Zhong & Zijiang Zhou & Xiaoping Gao, 2025. "Assessment of Urban Flood Resilience Under a Novel Framework and Method: A Case Study of the Taihu Lake Basin," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-24, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yuliang Li & Ran Yi & Lin Liu & Feng Chen, 2023. "Sustainable Ecosystem Services of a Time-Honored Artificial River Ecosystem—Enlightenments from the Carp Brook, in Northern Fujian Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(5), pages 1-13, February.
    2. Meixler, Marcia S., 2017. "Assessment of Hurricane Sandy damage and resulting loss in ecosystem services in a coastal-urban setting," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 28-46.
    3. Ping Shen & Lijuan Wu & Ziwen Huo & Jiaying Zhang, 2023. "A Study on the Spatial Pattern of the Ecological Product Value of China’s County-Level Regions Based on GEP Evaluation," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-18, February.
    4. Nikodinoska, Natasha & Paletto, Alessandro & Pastorella, Fabio & Granvik, Madeleine & Franzese, Pier Paolo, 2018. "Assessing, valuing and mapping ecosystem services at city level: The case of Uppsala (Sweden)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 368(C), pages 411-424.
    5. Amirnejad, Hamid & Khalilian, Sadegh & Assareh, Mohammad H. & Ahmadian, Majid, 2006. "Estimating the existence value of north forests of Iran by using a contingent valuation method," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 665-675, July.
    6. Xiaoyu Li & Shudan Gong & Qingdong Shi & Yuan Fang, 2023. "A Review of Ecosystem Services Based on Bibliometric Analysis: Progress, Challenges, and Future Directions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-18, November.
    7. Xiaozhen Zhou & Qianfeng Wang & Rongrong Zhang & Binyu Ren & Xiaoping Wu & Yue Wu & Jiakui Tang, 2022. "A Spatiotemporal Analysis of Hainan Island’s 2010–2020 Gross Ecosystem Product Accounting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-18, November.
    8. Jens Abildtrup & Anne Stenger, 2022. "Report on valuation methods," Working Papers hal-04068881, HAL.
    9. Pi, Tianlei & Jiao, Linke & Zhou, Yuhan & Shi, Jin, 2026. "Biodiversity risk and corporate greenwashing: Evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    10. Beça, Pedro & Santos, Rui, 2010. "Measuring sustainable welfare: A new approach to the ISEW," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(4), pages 810-819, February.
    11. Xiangnan Fan & Yuning Cheng & Fangqi Tan & Tianyi Zhao, 2022. "Construction and Optimization of the Ecological Security Pattern in Liyang, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-28, September.
    12. Azqueta, Diego & Sotelsek, Daniel, 2007. "Valuing nature: From environmental impacts to natural capital," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 22-30, June.
    13. Shengwang Bao & Wanglai Cui & Fan Yang, 2024. "Future land use prediction and optimization strategy of Zhejiang Greater Bay Area coupled with ecological security multi-scenario pattern," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(4), pages 1-23, April.
    14. Agudelo, César Augusto Ruiz & Bustos, Sandra Liliana Hurtado & Moreno, Carmen Alicia Parrado, 2020. "Modeling interactions among multiple ecosystem services. A critical review," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 429(C).
    15. Heagney, E.C. & Rose, J.M. & Ardeshiri, A. & Kovac, M., 2019. "The economic value of tourism and recreation across a large protected area network," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    16. Long, Xianling & Ji, Xi, 2019. "Economic Growth Quality, Environmental Sustainability, and Social Welfare in China - Provincial Assessment Based on Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI)," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 157-176.
    17. Houdet, Joël & Trommetter, Michel & Weber, Jacques, 2012. "Understanding changes in business strategies regarding biodiversity and ecosystem services," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 37-46.
    18. Windh, Jessica & Meredith, Gwendwr & Miller, Maryfrances & Lee, Katherine & Ritten, John & Thayer, Anastasia W. & Torell, Greg & Spiegal, Sheri & Wulfhorst, J.D., 2025. "Identifying a Path Forward: Evaluating Ranch Socio-Economic Sustainability and Impacts on Ranch Succession Planning," Western Economics Forum, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(1).
    19. Song, Xiaoqing & Wang, Xiong & Hu, Shougeng & Xiao, Renbin & Scheffran, Jürgen, 2022. "Functional transition of cultivated ecosystems: Underlying mechanisms and policy implications in China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    20. N & a Kaji Budhathoki, "undated". "Climate Change: Perceptions, Reality and Agricultural Practice: Evidence from Nepal," Working papers 122, The South Asian Network for Development and Environmental Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:1:p:149-:d:1565633. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask MDPI Indexing Manager to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.