IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v20y2023i4p2911-d1060744.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How Much Is Winning a Matter of Luck? A Comparison of 3 × 3 and 5v5 Basketball

Author

Listed:
  • Gergely Csurilla

    (Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, 1097 Budapest, Hungary
    Sport Economics and Decision Making Research Centre, Hungarian University of Sports Science, 1123 Budapest, Hungary)

  • Zoltán Boros

    (Sport Economics and Decision Making Research Centre, Hungarian University of Sports Science, 1123 Budapest, Hungary)

  • Diána Ivett Fűrész

    (Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Pécs, 7624 Pécs, Hungary)

  • András Gyimesi

    (Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Pécs, 7624 Pécs, Hungary)

  • Markus Raab

    (Institute of Psychology, German Sport University Cologne, 50933 Cologne, Germany
    School of Applied Sciences, London South Bank University, London SE1 0AA, UK)

  • Tamás Sterbenz

    (Sport Economics and Decision Making Research Centre, Hungarian University of Sports Science, 1123 Budapest, Hungary)

Abstract

Background: The comparison of team sports based on luck has a long tradition and remains unsolved. A contrast between the new Olympic format three-on-three (3 × 3) and five-on-five (5v5) forms of basketball has never been analyzed and provides a comparison within the same form of sports. Methods: We developed a new method to calculate performance indicators for each team and invented the Relative Score Difference Index, a new competitive balance indicator that allows the comparison of luck in the two basketball forms for both men and women. We collected game-level data about 3 × 3 and 5v5 from the World Cups held between 2010 and 2019 ( N = 666). Luck was defined as the difference between the expected and the actual outcomes of games. Using the basketball World Cup data, we applied the Surprise Index, ran probit regression models, and compared the basketball forms on the goodness-of-fit of the models. Results: As we predicted, there are differential effects of luck between game formats and sex, such that the 3 × 3 form depends more on luck and women’s games are less influenced by luck when compared to men’s games. Conclusion: Coaches may better understand the differences between the two forms and sexes regarding luck if they are aware that the 3 × 3 and men’s competitions are usually more influenced by luck. The findings provide a leverage point for testing new performances and competition balance indicators and will acknowledge the number of games we enjoy watching.

Suggested Citation

  • Gergely Csurilla & Zoltán Boros & Diána Ivett Fűrész & András Gyimesi & Markus Raab & Tamás Sterbenz, 2023. "How Much Is Winning a Matter of Luck? A Comparison of 3 × 3 and 5v5 Basketball," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-14, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:20:y:2023:i:4:p:2911-:d:1060744
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/20/4/2911/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/20/4/2911/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rubén Portes & Sergio L. Jiménez & Rafael M. Navarro & Aaron T. Scanlan & Miguel-Ángel Gómez, 2020. "Comparing the External Loads Encountered during Competition between Elite, Junior Male and Female Basketball Players," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-10, February.
    2. Gergely Csurilla & András Gyimesi & Erika Kendelényi-Gulyás & Tamás Sterbenz, 2021. "Where is victory most certain? The level of luck-based noise factor in Summer Olympic Games," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 71(3), pages 369-386, September.
    3. David Mancha-Triguero & Javier García-Rubio & Antonio Antúnez & Sergio J. Ibáñez, 2020. "Physical and Physiological Profiles of Aerobic and Anaerobic Capacities in Young Basketball Players," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-14, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Csató, László & Bodnár, Gergely, 2023. "Mérhetnénk jobban a csapatok erejét a Bajnokok Ligájában? Fontos megjegyzés az Európai Labdarúgó-szövetség számára [How to better measure team strength in the Champions League. An important message," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 813-827.
    2. Csató, László & Petróczy, Dóra Gréta, 2022. "Hogyan számszerűsíthető az ösztönzéskompatibilitás? Esettanulmány a sport világából [Quantifying incentive compatibility: a case study from the world of sports]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 841-852.
    3. Ju-Yong Bae, 2022. "Positional Differences in Physique, Physical Strength, and Lower Extremity Stability in Korean Male Elite High School Basketball Athletes," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(6), pages 1-10, March.
    4. Sergio J. Ibáñez & María Isabel Piñar & David García & David Mancha-Triguero, 2023. "Physical Fitness as a Predictor of Performance during Competition in Professional Women’s Basketball Players," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-21, January.
    5. David Mancha-Triguero & Javier García-Rubio & José M. Gamonales & Sergio J. Ibáñez, 2021. "Strength and Speed Profiles Based on Age and Sex Differences in Young Basketball Players," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(2), pages 1-14, January.
    6. Javier García-Rubio & Daniel Carreras & Sebastian Feu & Antonio Antunez & Sergio J. Ibáñez, 2020. "Citius, Altius, Fortius; Is It Enough to Achieve Success in Basketball?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(20), pages 1-10, October.
    7. David Mancha-Triguero & Pablo Pérez-Murillo & Sergio J. Ibáñez & Antonio Antúnez, 2022. "Does the Physiological Response of a Triathlete Change in the Use or Absence of Drafting?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-14, July.
    8. Rubén Portes & Rafael Manuel Navarro Barragán & Julio Calleja-González & Miguel Ángel Gómez-Ruano & Sergio Lorenzo Jiménez Sáiz, 2022. "Physical Persistency across Game Quarters and during Consecutive Games in Elite Junior Basketball Players," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(9), pages 1-11, May.
    9. Arnau Sacot & Víctor López-Ros & Anna Prats-Puig & Jesús Escosa & Jordi Barretina & Julio Calleja-González, 2022. "Multidisciplinary Neuromuscular and Endurance Interventions on Youth Basketball Players: A Systematic Review with Meta-Analysis and Meta-Regression," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-34, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:20:y:2023:i:4:p:2911-:d:1060744. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.