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COVID-19 Deaths in the United States: Shifts in Hot Spots over the Three Phases of the Pandemic and the Spatiotemporally Varying Impact of Pandemic Vulnerability

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  • Yoo Min Park

    (Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC 27858, USA)

  • Gregory D. Kearney

    (Department of Public Health, Brody School of Medicine, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC 27834, USA)

  • Bennett Wall

    (Vidant Medical Center, Greenville, NC 27835, USA)

  • Katherine Jones

    (Department of Public Health, Brody School of Medicine, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC 27834, USA)

  • Robert J. Howard

    (Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC 27858, USA)

  • Ray H. Hylock

    (Department of Health Services and Information Management, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC 27834, USA)

Abstract

The geographic areas most impacted by COVID-19 may not remain static because public health measures/behaviors change dynamically, and the impacts of pandemic vulnerability also may vary geographically and temporally. The nature of the pandemic makes spatiotemporal methods essential to understanding the distribution of COVID-19 deaths and developing interventions. This study examines the spatiotemporal trends in COVID-19 death rates in the United States from March 2020 to May 2021 by performing an emerging hot spot analysis (EHSA). It then investigates the effects of the COVID-19 time-dependent and basic social vulnerability factors on COVID-19 death rates using geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR). The EHSA results demonstrate that over the three phases of the pandemic (first wave, second wave, and post-vaccine deployment), hot spots have shifted from densely populated cities and the states with a high percentage of socially vulnerable individuals to the states with relatively relaxed social distancing requirements, and then to the states with low vaccination rates. The GTWR results suggest that local infection and testing rates, social distancing interventions, and other social, environmental, and health risk factors show significant associations with COVID-19 death rates, but these associations vary over time and space. These findings can inform public health planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Yoo Min Park & Gregory D. Kearney & Bennett Wall & Katherine Jones & Robert J. Howard & Ray H. Hylock, 2021. "COVID-19 Deaths in the United States: Shifts in Hot Spots over the Three Phases of the Pandemic and the Spatiotemporally Varying Impact of Pandemic Vulnerability," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(17), pages 1-15, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:17:p:8987-:d:622371
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Abolfazl Mollalo & Alireza Mohammadi & Sara Mavaddati & Behzad Kiani, 2021. "Spatial Analysis of COVID-19 Vaccination: A Scoping Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(22), pages 1-14, November.
    2. Peng Cui & Zhiyu Dong & Xin Yao & Yifei Cao & Yifan Sun & Lan Feng, 2022. "What Makes Urban Communities More Resilient to COVID-19? A Systematic Review of Current Evidence," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(17), pages 1-15, August.
    3. Nushrat Nazia & Zahid Ahmad Butt & Melanie Lyn Bedard & Wang-Choi Tang & Hibah Sehar & Jane Law, 2022. "Methods Used in the Spatial and Spatiotemporal Analysis of COVID-19 Epidemiology: A Systematic Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(14), pages 1-28, July.

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