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Construction of the Infection Curve of Local Cases of COVID-19 in Hong Kong using Back-Projection

Author

Listed:
  • Pui Hing Chau

    (School of Nursing, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong)

  • Wei Ying Li

    (School of Nursing, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong)

  • Paul S. F. Yip

    (Department of Social Work and Social Administration, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
    Hong Kong Jockey Club Centre for Suicide Research and Prevention, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong)

Abstract

This study aimed to estimate the infection curve of local cases of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Hong Kong and identify major events and preventive measures associated with the trajectory of the infection curve in the first two waves. The daily number of onset local cases was used to estimate the daily number of infections based on back-projection. The estimated infection curve was examined to identify the preventive measures or major events associated with its trajectory. Until 30 April 2020, there were 422 confirmed local cases. The infection curve of the local cases in Hong Kong was constructed and used for evaluating the impacts of various policies and events in a narrative manner. Social gatherings and some pre-implementation announcements on inbound traveler policies coincided with peaks on the infection curve.

Suggested Citation

  • Pui Hing Chau & Wei Ying Li & Paul S. F. Yip, 2020. "Construction of the Infection Curve of Local Cases of COVID-19 in Hong Kong using Back-Projection," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(18), pages 1-8, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:18:p:6909-:d:416891
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. P. H. Chau & Paul S. F. Yip & Jisheng S. Cui, 2003. "Reconstructing the incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in Hong Kong by using data from HIV positive tests and diagnoses of acquired immune deficiency syndrome," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 52(2), pages 237-248, May.
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