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Analysis of Carbon Sequestration Capacity and Economic Losses Under Multiple Scenarios in Major Grain-Producing Regions of China: A Case Study of the Urban Agglomeration the Huaihe River Basin

Author

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  • Junhao Cheng

    (Department of Geography, Fuyang Normal University, Fuyang 236037, China)

  • Wenfeng Hu

    (Department of Geography, Fuyang Normal University, Fuyang 236037, China
    Research Center for Geographic Processes and Environmental Evolution in the Huaihe River Basin, Fuyang Normal University, Fuyang 236037, China)

  • Mengtian Zheng

    (Department of Geography, Fuyang Normal University, Fuyang 236037, China)

  • Xiaolong Jin

    (Department of Geography, Fuyang Normal University, Fuyang 236037, China
    Research Center for Geographic Processes and Environmental Evolution in the Huaihe River Basin, Fuyang Normal University, Fuyang 236037, China)

  • Junqiang Yao

    (Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China)

  • Shuangmei Tong

    (Department of Geography, Fuyang Normal University, Fuyang 236037, China
    Research Center for Geographic Processes and Environmental Evolution in the Huaihe River Basin, Fuyang Normal University, Fuyang 236037, China)

  • Fei Guo

    (Fuyang Land Consolidation and Rehabilitation Center, Fuyang 236037, China)

Abstract

The Huaihe River Basin stands as a vital grain-producing base in China. Predicting the dynamic evolution of its carbon storage (CS) is of great theoretical value and practical significance for maintaining regional ecological security, guaranteeing food production capacity, and coping with climate change. This study established a multi-dimensional analysis framework of “scenario simulation–reservoir assessment–value quantification”. Using a sample of 195 cities, the PLUS-InVEST-GIS method was combined to explore the overall CS, spatial differentiation, and value changes in future scenarios. The results indicate that the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020, CS kept on declining, with cultivated land and forest land being the dominant carbon pools, accounting for over 86% of the total CS. (2) From a “city–grid–raster” perspective, the spatial pattern of high-value hot spots of CS remained stable, and the overall pattern remained unchanged under multi-scenario simulation, yet the overall carbon sink center of gravity shifted to the southwest. (3) The top five driving factors are elevation, slope, NDVI, GDP per capita, and population density, accounting for 77.2% of the total driving force. (4) The carbon sequestration capacity at the county scale continued to weaken, and the overall capacity presented the following order: 2035 Farmland protection scenario (FPS) > 2035 Natural development scenario (NDS) > 2035 Urban development scenario (UDS). The resulting carbon economic losses were USD 2.28 × 10 8 , 4.57 × 10 8 , and 6.90 × 10 8 , respectively. The research results will provide scientific land use decision-making support for the realization of the “double-carbon” goals in the Huaihe River grain-producing area.

Suggested Citation

  • Junhao Cheng & Wenfeng Hu & Mengtian Zheng & Xiaolong Jin & Junqiang Yao & Shuangmei Tong & Fei Guo, 2025. "Analysis of Carbon Sequestration Capacity and Economic Losses Under Multiple Scenarios in Major Grain-Producing Regions of China: A Case Study of the Urban Agglomeration the Huaihe River Basin," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-23, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:15:y:2025:i:12:p:1268-:d:1676953
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yan Zhang & Xiaoyong Liao & Dongqi Sun, 2024. "A Coupled InVEST-PLUS Model for the Spatiotemporal Evolution of Ecosystem Carbon Storage and Multi-Scenario Prediction Analysis," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-24, April.
    2. Wei-Ling Hsu & Xijuan Shen & Haiying Xu & Chunmei Zhang & Hsin-Lung Liu & Yan-Chyuan Shiau, 2021. "Integrated Evaluations of Resource and Environment Carrying Capacity of the Huaihe River Ecological and Economic Belt in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-21, October.
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