Spatiotemporal Patterns of Agriculture Expansion Intensity and Land-Use/Cover Changes in the Mixed Urban-Rural Upper Kafue River Basin of Zambia (1989–2019)

Understanding land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes is essential for sustainable land management, particularly in regions experiencing rapid urbanization and agricultural expansion. This study analyzes the LULC dynamics in the Upper Kafue River Basin, Zambia, from 1989 to 2019, using remote-sensing data, Geographic Information Systems (GISs), and advanced analytical techniques such as intensity analysis and directional gradient analysis. The findings indicate a notable decline in forest cover, primarily driven by agricultural expansion, while built-up areas increased, reflecting urban growth. Forest-to-agriculture conversion emerged as the dominant driver of change, with significant transitions also occurring across multiple land categories. The results highlight a dynamic and complex landscape shaped by overlapping socio-economic and environmental pressures, emphasizing the need for targeted policy interventions to mitigate environmental degradation. These insights provide valuable guidance for policymakers and land managers seeking to balance development with conservation in Zambia and similar regions.