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A simple way to estimate current-quarter GNP

  • Terry J. Fitzgerald
  • Preston J. Miller

This paper describes a method developed to predict the advance (first) estimate of inflation-adjusted gross national product (real GNP) using hours-worked data. Besides generating fairly accurate forecasts of advance GNP, the method has two implications. First, the Commerce Department seems to weigh the hours-worked data most heavily in its early estimates of real GNP but less and less so in its revised estimates. Second, analysts attempting to predict current-quarter outcomes in real time need to consider the availability and reliability of data at the time the forecasts are made.

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its journal Quarterly Review.

Volume (Year): (1989)
Issue (Month): Fall ()
Pages: 27-31

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmqr:y:1989:i:fall:p:27-31:n:v.13no.4
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