IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedhle/00047.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is There Still Slack in the Labor Market?

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Aaronson
  • Scott Brave
  • David Kelley

Abstract

Based on recent population and labor force projections, we estimate that payroll employment remained about one million jobs below its trend as of April 2016. Given an average pace of roughly 200,000 jobs added per month so far this year, this implies that labor market slack is likely to persist until late 2016. Considerable uncertainty surrounds this estimate, however, especially with respect to labor force trends. An alternative calculation that assumes a steeper decline in trend labor force participation driven by shifting demographics suggests that slack could persist for up to an additional year.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Aaronson & Scott Brave & David Kelley, 2016. "Is There Still Slack in the Labor Market?," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhle:00047
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.chicagofed.org/~/media/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2016/cfl359-pdf.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. John C. Williams, 2016. "Assessing the New Normal(s). Speech to the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco’s 2016 Member Conference, San Francisco, California, October 21, 2016," Speech 171, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. John C. Williams, 2017. "Looking Back, Looking Ahead," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Anat Bracha & Mary A. Burke, 2016. "Who counts as employed?: informal work, employment status, and labor market slack," Working Papers 16-29, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    4. John C. Williams, 2016. "Longview: The Economic Outlook," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. John C. Williams, 2016. "Whither Inflation Targeting? Speech to the Hayek Group, Reno, Nevada, September 6, 2016," Speech 169, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    6. John C. Williams, 2016. "Longview: The Economic Outlook. Speech to the Anchorage Economic Development Corporation, Anchorage, Alaska , August 18, 2016," Speech 168, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedhle:00047. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lauren Wiese (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbchus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.