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Residential investment over the real estate cycle

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  • John Krainer

Abstract

Much attention recently has been given to the possibility of a slowdown in the U.S. residential real estate market. While real residential investment has continued to grow and existing house prices have held up through the first quarter of 2006, analysts have pointed to other signs of slowing. Two commonly cited indicators are an apparent slowing of sales of new and existing homes and a buildup of inventories of new homes in many markets. In this Economic Letter, I characterize past episodes of residential investment downturns and evaluate how specific housing market variables, such as sales volumes and inventories, perform as predictors of downturns.

Suggested Citation

  • John Krainer, 2006. "Residential investment over the real estate cycle," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jun30.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2006:i:jun30:n:2006-15
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard W. Fisher, 2005. "Globalization and monetary policy," Speeches and Essays 118, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Bean, Charles R, 1994. "European Unemployment: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(2), pages 573-619, June.
    3. repec:fip:feddsp:y:2005:i:nov3 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Goodness C. Aye & Stephen M. Miller & Rangan Gupta & Mehmet Balcilar, 2013. "Forecasting the US Real Private Residential Fixed Investment Using Large Number of Predictors," Working Papers 201348, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Katarzyna Budnik & Michal Greszta & Michal Hulej & Marcin Kolasa & Karol Murawski & Michal Rot & Bartosz Rybaczyk & Magdalena Tarnicka, 2009. "The new macroeconometric model of the Polish economy," NBP Working Papers 62, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    3. Naik, Prasad A., 2015. "Marketing Dynamics: A Primer on Estimation and Control," Foundations and Trends(R) in Marketing, now publishers, vol. 9(3), pages 175-266, December.
    4. Nombulelo Gumata, Alain Kabundi and Eliphas Ndou, 2013. "Important Channels of Transmission Monetary Policy Shock in South Africa," Working Papers 375, Economic Research Southern Africa.

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    Keywords

    Housing - Prices ; Real property ; Investments;

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