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Have We Entered an Era of High Productivity Growth?

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Labor productivity gains over the past three years helped the U.S. economy expand steadily, even with near-zero employment growth. Combined with substantially increased business investment in artificial intelligence technology, these conditions have raised the question of whether the economy is entering a high-productivity growth period. Two well-known productivity measures do not yet provide strong evidence of this shift. However, recent patterns resemble the mixed signals during the early stages of the 1990s productivity surge before a sustained high-growth period materialized, giving reason for cautious optimism about future productivity growth.

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  • Hamza Abdelrahman & Andrew Foerster, 2026. "Have We Entered an Era of High Productivity Growth?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2026(14), pages 1-5, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:103308
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