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Is Optimism for Artificial Intelligence Boosting Investment?

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Abstract

U.S. business spending related to artificial intelligence (AI) grew substantially in 2025 among publicly traded firms, which account for the bulk of overall investment. Analyzing sentiment data from quarterly company earnings calls can help infer current and evolving optimism towards AI. Public firm data show growth in capital spending and research and development funding has come entirely from the largest companies that are positive about AI. While market concentration among large firms raises some challenges, optimism measures suggest that AI investment will continue to contribute to future overall investment growth.

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  • Aakash Kalyani & Huiyu Li, 2026. "Is Optimism for Artificial Intelligence Boosting Investment?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2026(13), pages 1-6, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:103265
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    1. Tim Loughran & Bill Mcdonald, 2011. "When Is a Liability Not a Liability? Textual Analysis, Dictionaries, and 10‐Ks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 35-65, February.
    2. James Cloyne & Clodomiro Ferreira & Maren Froemel & Paolo Surico, 2023. "Monetary Policy, Corporate Finance, and Investment," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(6), pages 2586-2634.
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    1. AI investment and semiconductor prices
      by ? in FRED blog on 2026-06-29 13:00:00

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    Cited by:

    1. Hamza Abdelrahman & Andrew Foerster, 2026. "Have We Entered an Era of High Productivity Growth?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2026(14), pages 1-5, May.
    2. Emmanuel U. Opara & Modupe Ojumu & Gbolahan Solomon Osho & Onochie Jude Dieli, 2026. "Harnessing Generative Artificial Intelligence for Academic Research: Capabilities, Challenges, and Ethical Implications," International Journal of Higher Education, Sciedu Press, vol. 15(3), pages 1-1, June.

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