IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedcec/00056.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Digging into the Downward Trend in Consumer Inflation Expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Carola Binder
  • Randal J. Verbrugge

Abstract

Since mid-2014, the long-run inflation expectations of consumers have been declining. Many commentators blame the decline on gasoline prices, which have also been falling since that time, but we argue that this explanation is incomplete. We analyze University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers microdata and find that a decline in uncertainty about future inflation is a modest part of the story over this period?but it represents the entire story when considering changes in expectations since 2012.

Suggested Citation

  • Carola Binder & Randal J. Verbrugge, 2016. "Digging into the Downward Trend in Consumer Inflation Expectations," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue September.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:00056
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.clevelandfed.org/newsroom-and-events/publications/economic-commentary/2016-economic-commentaries/ec-201611-digging-into-the-decline-in-inflation-expectations.aspx
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jeffrey Schafer, 2022. "Inflation Expectations and Their Formation: Working Paper 2022-03," Working Papers 57398, Congressional Budget Office.
    2. Binder, Carola Conces, 2019. "Comment on “Central Bank announcements: Big news for little people?” by Michael Lamla and Dmitri Vinogradov," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 39-44.
    3. Yiqun Gloria Chen, 2019. "Inflation, Inflation Expectations, and the Phillips Curve: Working Paper 2019-07," Working Papers 55501, Congressional Budget Office.
    4. Binder, Carola Conces, 2020. "Long-run inflation expectations in the shrinking upper tail," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    5. Binder, Carola C., 2017. "Measuring uncertainty based on rounding: New method and application to inflation expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 1-12.
    6. Andrew B. Martinez, 2020. "Extracting Information from Different Expectations," Working Papers 2020-008, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    7. Carola Binder & Wesley Janson & Randal J. Verbrugge, 2019. "Thinking Outside the Box: Do SPF Respondents Have Anchored Inflation Expectations?," Working Papers 19-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    uncertainty; inflation expectations;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:00056. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: 4D Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbclus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.