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What Determines the Current Account: Intratemporal versus Intertemporal Factors

Author

Listed:
  • Piotr Dybka

    () (Warsaw School of Economics)

  • Michal Rubaszek

    () (Warsaw School of Economics
    Narodowy Bank Polski)

Abstract

This paper adds to the discussion on the determinants of the current account balance. In particular, we construct a large balanced panel of data for 101 countries and 15 years covering observations for the current account and 18 explanatory variables. Next, we apply static and dynamic Bayesian Model Averaging techniques to verify whether intratemporal (i.e. relative demand and real exchange rates) or intertemporal factors (i.e. stage of development, fiscal balance, demographics) are crucial to understand current account developments. Our results indicate that the latter are key drivers of the external balance, which provides support for the intertemporal model of the current account.

Suggested Citation

  • Piotr Dybka & Michal Rubaszek, 2017. "What Determines the Current Account: Intratemporal versus Intertemporal Factors," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 67(1), pages 2-14, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:67:y:2017:i:1:p:2-14
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    current account; panel data; bayesian model averaging; intertemporal model;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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