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Comparison of Selected Simple Models of Inflation in the Czech Economy


  • Martin Melecký


This paper begins with a description of simple select models of inflation and their ability to fit the data. The paper in turn measures the stability of particular parsimonious models. One-step forecast tests are applied, which establish the instability of the money demand model compared with other models, despite its ability to fit the data nearly as well as the P-star model. Further, the forecasting performances of the selected parsimonious models are analyzed, though only the performance of one-step forecasts are fully treated given the insufficient descriptive ability of the AR processes of explanatory variables. As a measure of forecast ability, the author employs U-statistic, RMSE, and MAE tests. The above statistics assign the best-forecast performance to the modified version of the P-star model of inflation for a small, open economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Melecký, 2001. "Comparison of Selected Simple Models of Inflation in the Czech Economy," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 51(5), pages 279-297, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:51:y:2001:i:4:p:279-297

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    More about this item


    inflation; traditional monetary model; Phillips model; Portfolio model; P-star model; forecasting performance;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes


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