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The Impact of Climate Change on Grain Yield and Yield Variability in Iran

Author

Listed:
  • Mahdiyeh Saei

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Zabol, Zabol, Iran.)

  • Hamid Mohammadi

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Zabol, Zabol, Iran.)

  • Saman Ziaee

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Zabol, Zabol, Iran.)

  • Sajjad Barkhordari Dourbash

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.)

Abstract

In this paper, we have examined the effect of climate variables on the yield average and variability of major grain crops (rice, maize, and wheat) in Iran from 1983 to 2014. For this purpose, we made use of the Just and Pope Production Function crop yields panel data. The results revealed that the influences of climate variables were different in the crops. The time trend positively influenced the average crop yield and yield variability, but increasing in the maximum temperature had a negative impact on the grain yields. While the maximum temperature increased the risk of wheat production, this variable reduced the risk of maize and rice production. Minimum temperature and rainfall had positive influences on the average yields of the crops. Furthermore, minimum temperature decreased the production risk of maize and wheat. Finally, the influences of rainfall on the yield variability were positive for whole crops. Regional dummies were statistically significant for certain climate zones. It is expected that future climate changes reduce the mean yield of the crops, all the more showing the significance of crop insurance schemes and policies that mitigate insecurity of food in the light of expected climate variations in the coming years.

Suggested Citation

  • Mahdiyeh Saei & Hamid Mohammadi & Saman Ziaee & Sajjad Barkhordari Dourbash, 2019. "The Impact of Climate Change on Grain Yield and Yield Variability in Iran," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 23(2), pages 509-531, Spring.
    • Handle: RePEc:eut:journl:v:23:y:2019:i:2:p:509
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    Cited by:

    1. Pakrooh, Parisa & Kamal, Muhamad Abdul, 2023. "Modeling the potential impacts of climate change on wheat yield in Iran: Evidence from national and provincial data analysis," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 486(C).
    2. Samira Shayanmehr & Shida Rastegari Henneberry & Mahmood Sabouhi Sabouni & Naser Shahnoushi Foroushani, 2020. "Climate Change and Sustainability of Crop Yield in Dry Regions Food Insecurity," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-24, November.

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