IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eur/ejefjr/68.html

Econometric Modeling and Forecasting of Food Exports in Albania

Author

Listed:
  • Alma Braimllari (Spaho)

    (“Aleksandёr Moisiu†University, Albania)

  • Oltiana Toshkollari

    (“Aleksandër Moisiu†University, Durrës, Albania)

Abstract

Exports of goods and services represent one of the most important sources of foreign exchange income that alleviate the pressure on the balance payment and create employment opportunities. Exports’ opportunities in Albania for food products have been increasing significantly, but still they are far from their real capacity. This study is an attempt to model and forecast the monthly export of food, beverages and tobacco products of Albania, using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) methodology. The data used are covering the period 2005:M1-2015:M12, and are taken from the database of National Institute of Statistics of Albania. Unit root tests are used to test the stationarity of the series. Autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions are used to identify the most suitable SARIMA model, in explaining the time series and forecasting the future monthly food exports. The residuals of the best fitted model are used for the diagnostic checking. The results indicate that the best fitted model is SARIMA (3,1,1)x(1,1,0)12. The best identified model for the data in the study is used to forecast monthly food exports up to the year 2017. These findings are useful for customers, producers and policymakers.

Suggested Citation

  • Alma Braimllari (Spaho) & Oltiana Toshkollari, 2022. "Econometric Modeling and Forecasting of Food Exports in Albania," European Journal of Engineering and Formal Sciences Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 5(2), pages 101-111, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eur:ejefjr:68
    DOI: 10.26417/ejms.v1i2.p33-41
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mentisia.org/files/articles/ejfe_v5_i2_22/Braimllari.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://mentisia.org/files/articles/ejfe_v5_i2_22/Braimllari.html
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.26417/ejms.v1i2.p33-41?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thin-Yin Leong, 2007. "Simpler Spreadsheet Simulation of Multi-Server Queues," INFORMS Transactions on Education, INFORMS, vol. 7(2), pages 172-177, January.
    2. Thin-Yin Leong, 2007. "Monte Carlo Spreadsheet Simulation Using Resampling," INFORMS Transactions on Education, INFORMS, vol. 7(3), pages 188-200, May.
    3. Thin-Yin Leong & Michelle L. F. Cheong, 2008. "Teaching Business Modeling Using Spreadsheets," INFORMS Transactions on Education, INFORMS, vol. 9(1), pages 20-34, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:eur:ejfejr:25 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Mark W. Isken, 2014. "Translating a Lab Based Spreadsheet Modeling Course to an Online Format: Experience from a Natural Experiment," INFORMS Transactions on Education, INFORMS, vol. 14(3), pages 120-128, May.
    3. Thin-Yin Leong & Nang-Laik Ma, 2024. "Spreadsheet Simulation of Priority Queues," INFORMS Transactions on Education, INFORMS, vol. 25(1), pages 1-22, September.
    4. John Miltenburg, 2019. "Online Teaching in a Large, Required, Undergraduate Management Science Course," INFORMS Transactions on Education, INFORMS, vol. 19(2), pages 89-104, January.
    5. Aleksandra Bartosiewicz & Adam Kucharski, 2024. "The reloading of a ship in a maritime container terminal as a queuing problem of interacting processes," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 34(1), pages 17-33.
    6. Mohsin Jat & Jason Monette & Parminder Singh Kang, 2025. "Case Article—Budding with ERP: Information and Operations Management Challenges in a Nascent Industry," INFORMS Transactions on Education, INFORMS, vol. 25(3), pages 179-186, May.
    7. LeBlanc, Larry J. & Grossman, Thomas A. & Bartolacci, Michael R., 2019. "Ensuring scalability and reusability of spreadsheet linear programming models," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 55-69.
    8. Sarah G. Nurre & Jeffery D. Weir, 2017. "Interactive Excel-Based Gantt Chart Schedule Builder," INFORMS Transactions on Education, INFORMS, vol. 17(2), pages 49-57, January.
    9. Thomas A. Grossman & Vijay Mehrotra & Mouwafac Sidaoui, 2016. "A Student-Centered Approach to the Business School Management Science Course," INFORMS Transactions on Education, INFORMS, vol. 16(2), pages 42-53, January.
    10. Coleen Wilder & Sailu Li, 2019. "Case Article—You Can’t Take It with You," INFORMS Transactions on Education, INFORMS, vol. 20(1), pages 33-36, September.
    11. Vinay Ramani & Jyotirmoy Dalal & Swami Dayakarananda, 2023. "Case Article—GAP: A Humanitarian Initiative of Ramakrishna Mission for Underprivileged Children," INFORMS Transactions on Education, INFORMS, vol. 24(1), pages 70-75, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eur:ejefjr:68. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mentisia (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://mentisia.org/index.php/ejfe .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.