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Parameter Optimization, Uncertainty Estimation and Sensitivity Analysis in Hydrological Modeling

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  • Rajesh VijayKumar Kherde
  • Priyadarshi H. Sawant

Abstract

This paper describes the application of Monte-Carlo simulations for parameter optimization, uncertainty estimation and sensitivity analysis using hydrological model developed by author [8] for Wardha River basin, Maharashtra, India. The Monte Carlo simulations revealed that the average values of parameters for the local optima of the calibration period seem to give good fit to the data and performance measure (NSE) does not differ significantly from the local optima of the respective calibration years. It is interesting to notice that, if the Monte Carlo simulations are carried out all over again, it generate yet another set of random numbers as realizations of model parameters. However the model objective function (NSE) differs mere by 0.1% by running the new set of realizations and the local optimum parameter values are close to the earlier local optima. It seems that the model structure is in agreement with the ‘‘equifinality’’ or ‘‘non-uniqueness’’ concept as many different parameter sets give good fit to the data. However particular area of the parameter space is observed to be dominant in fitting the available observations, this is in contradiction to Beven’s theory behind rejecting the idea of optimum parameter set.

Suggested Citation

  • Rajesh VijayKumar Kherde & Priyadarshi H. Sawant, 2018. "Parameter Optimization, Uncertainty Estimation and Sensitivity Analysis in Hydrological Modeling," European Journal of Engineering and Technology Research, European Open Science, vol. 3(11), pages 66-72, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:epw:ejeng0:v:3:y:2018:i:11:id:60907
    DOI: 10.24018/ejeng.2018.3.11.907
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    1. James Charalambous & Ataur Rahman & Don Carroll, 2013. "Application of Monte Carlo Simulation Technique to Design Flood Estimation: A Case Study for North Johnstone River in Queensland, Australia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(11), pages 4099-4111, September.
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