IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

A Bayesian approach to German agricultural yield expectations

  • Jette Krause
Registered author(s):

    Agricultural yields depend on an encompassing set of technical and environmental factors. The development of such factors often is not fully observable, and their interactions and impacts on yields have not been completely understood. This paper proposes a Bayesian method for forming agricultural yeidl expectations based on past yields. With this method, the development of expectations on yield trend and variability over time is retrace, and expectations for the future are derived. German winter wheat, corn, and aggregated cereal yield data from 1950 through 2006 on the national scale are used for updating. It is shown that the expectation that yields follow a stable positive linear trend with increasing variance become the dominant hypothesis by 1990, and gains a final weight of more than 99 per cent for all crops considered.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/Insight/viewContentItem.do;jsessionid=814B0168369BCD379DCD815EB1829887?contentType=Article&contentId=1784616
    Download Restriction: Cannot be freely downloaded

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Article provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal Agricultural Finance Review.

    Volume (Year): 68 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 1 (September)
    Pages: 9-23

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:eme:afrpps:v:68:y:2008:i:1:p:9-23
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.emeraldinsight.com

    Order Information: Postal: Emerald Group Publishing, Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley, BD16 1WA, UK
    Web: http://emeraldgrouppublishing.com/products/journals/journals.htm?id=afr Email:


    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:afrpps:v:68:y:2008:i:1:p:9-23. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Louise Lister)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.