Estrategias de endeudamiento bajo estrés financiero: un análisis multivariado de los patrones divergentes de utilización de la red mundial de seguridad financiera

Crises finance is provided by institutions and agreements known as the Global Financial Safety Net (GFSN). Since the global financial crisis, the GFSN has diversified and become complex. How does such complexity affect the borrowing strategy of countries under financial stress? Through non-parametric hierarchical clustering, we identify an economic taxonomy of the GFSN that allows us to study how borrowers substitute and complement crisis finance by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), regional liquidity funds, and central bank currency swaps. To our knowledge, this is the first empirical analysis of borrowing patterns in the GFSN. Instead of testing hypotheses on causal relationships, we classify borrowing strategies between 2001 and 2018 based on 201 loan and swap agreements by 50 emerging and developing economies. Our results show a dominant and exclusive use of swaps. Countries excluded from swaps diversify borrowing strategies in addition to the IMF, even though their alternatives may be insufficient. Our results show that swaps have made access to crisis finance in the GFSN highly unequal. Policymakers should therefore include central banks in an effort to increase the effectiveness of crisis finance.