IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/elt/journl/v76y2009i304p811-884.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

La intolerancia a la deuda

Author

Listed:
  • Reinhart, Carmen M.

    (Departamento de Investigación del Fondo Monetario Internacional)

  • Rogoff, Kenneth S.

    (Departamento de Investigación del Fondo Monetario Internacional)

  • Savastano, Miguel A.

    (Departamento de Investigación del Fondo Monetario Internacional)

Abstract

This paper introduces the concept of “debt intolerance”, which manifests itself in the extreme duress many emerging markets experience at debt levels that would seem manageable by advanced country standards. We argue that “safe” external debt-to-GNP thresholds for debt intolerant countries are low, perhaps as low as 15 percent in some cases. These thresholds depend on a country’s default and inflation history. Debt intolerance is linked to the phenomenon of serial default that has plagued many countries over the past two centuries. Understanding and measuring debt intolerance is fundamental to assess the problems of debt sustainability, debt restructuring, capital market integration, and the scope for international lending to ameliorate crises. Our goal is to make a first pass at quantifying debt intolerance, including delineating debtors’ clubs and regions of vulnerability, on the basis on a history of credit events going back to the 1820s for over 100 countries.// Este artículo presenta el concepto de la “intolerancia a la deuda”, que se manifiesta en la extrema presión que experimentan muchos mercados emergentes por las deudas que parecerían manejables según los estándares de países desarrollados. Argumentamos que los umbrales “seguros” de la relación deuda externa/PNB para países con intolerancia a la deuda son bajos, quizá de hasta 15% en algunos casos. Estos umbrales dependen de la trayectoria de morosidad e inflación de cada país. La intolerancia a la deuda está vinculada con el fenómeno de la morosidad recurrente que afecta a muchos países desde hace dos siglos. La comprensión y medición de la intolerancia a la deuda es fundamental para evaluar los problemas provenientes de la sostenibilidad y reestructuración de la deuda, la integración de los mercados de capitales y el alcance de los préstamos internacionales para aminorar las crisis. Nuestra meta es hacer un primer intento por cuantificar la intolerancia a la deuda, incluyendo la delineación de los clubes y regiones de vulnerabilidad de los deudores, tomando como base una historia de eventos de crédito que data desde el decenio de 1820 de más de 100 países.

Suggested Citation

  • Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S. & Savastano, Miguel A., 2009. "La intolerancia a la deuda," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(304), pages 811-884, octubre-d.
  • Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:76:y:2009:i:304:p:811-884
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.20430/ete.v76i304.498
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.eltrimestreeconomico.com.mx/index.php/te/article/view/498/536
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item

    Keywords

    international finance; current account adjustment; short-term capital movements; international lending and debt problems; finanzas internacionales; ajuste de cuenta corriente; movimientos de capital; deuda soberana; problemas de deuda;

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:76:y:2009:i:304:p:811-884. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Enrique Popoca). General contact details of provider: http://www.fondodeculturaeconomica.com/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.