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Apertura comercial, desigualdad y pobreza. Reseña de los enfoques metodológicos, el estado del conocimiento y la asignatura pendiente

  • de Hoyos, Rafael

    (Secretaría de Educación Pública, México)

  • Lustig, Nora

    (George Washington University y El Colegio de México)

This paper surveys the recent literature on the methodologies that have been used to evaluate the distributive and poverty effects of trade liberalization in Latin America. Our survey classifies the large number of papers on the subject according to the welfare measure they use: inequality (on wages and household income) or poverty. Our survey shows that a sound methodological approach evaluating the welfare effects of trade liberalization should take into account: the degree of tariff to price transmission, all income sources (not only wages), employment effects, gender and regional heterogeneity of trade’s impact, and second-order as well as general equilibrium effects. Two methodologies represent the latest efforts in this direction. (1) Income generation models with an explicit relationship between changes in tariff and changes in household real income (Porto, 2007), this methodology is capable of testing the different transmission channels linking trade policy and inequality and poverty. (2)The Macro-Micro approach (Bourguingon et. al, 2008) which combines a CGE with a micro-simulation model evaluates the welfare effects of trade policy taking into account general equilibrium effects. These two approaches can be combined to get the short- and long-term welfare effects of trade policy, respectively.// El estudio presenta una reseña de los principales enfoques metodológicos que se han utilizado para evaluar el impacto de la apertura comercial sobre la distribución del ingreso y la pobreza en América Latina. La gran cantidad de estudios en la materia fueron clasificados según el indicador de bienestar utilizado: desigualdad (salarial e ingresos de los hogares) o pobreza. La reseña demuestra que un enfoque metodológico con el suficiente rigor analítico debe tomar en cuenta: el grado de transmisión de cambios aranceles a cambios precios domésticos, todas las fuentes de ingreso, posibles efectos en el empleo, consecuencias diferenciadas en hombres y mujeres y en distintas regiones geográficas, y efectos de segundo orden, así como también efectos de equilibrio general. Dos metodologías representan los esfuerzos más recientes en esta dirección: i) los modelos de generación de ingreso del hogar (Porto, 2007), los cuales vinculan de manera implícita los cambios arancelarios con los cambios en el ingreso de los hogares y son capaces de evaluar –de modo empírico– los distintos canales de transmisión entre la política comercial y la desigualdad y la pobreza, y ii) el enfoque macro-micro (Bourguingon et al, 2008) que combina modelos de equilibrio general con modelos de microsimulación y permite evaluar la política comercial tomando en cuenta los efectos de equilibrio general. Estos dos enfoques pueden ser utilizados de manera complementaria para medir los efectos distributivos y de pobreza provenientes de la política comercial en el corto y el largo plazos, respectivamente.

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Article provided by Fondo de Cultura Económica in its journal El Trimestre Económico.

Volume (Year): LXXVI (2) (2009)
Issue (Month): 302 (abril-junio)
Pages: 283-328

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Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:76:y:2009:i:302:p:283-328
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