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Análisis de la estrategia de política monetaria del Banco Central Europeo (1999-2005)

Listed author(s):
  • García Iglesias, Jesús Manuel

    (Universidad de Extremadura)

  • Pateiro Rodríguez, Carlos

    (Universidad de A Coruña)

The main goals in this paper are firstly, to critically examine the ECB’s official monetary policy strategy concerning its three fundamental topics: the definition of price stability, the analysis framework, and communication to the public on its decisions and achievements; and secondly, to empirically analyze its decision-making policies for the period 1999-2005, in order to confirm if these decisions taken are in fact sufficiently related to its official strategy or, on the contrary, if there is a different implicit strategy underlying claims. The empirical work to explain the interest rate setting is made by means of several approaches: calibrated, intra-temporary and inter-temporary regarding the generalized method of moments. The conclusions are clear: the implicit inflation target is located at around 1.9%, very close to 2%, as was stated by the ECB in the evaluation of its monetary policy strategy in 2003. We contend that the approach of this institution is forward-looking on underlying inflation, and is backward-looking with regard to the business cycle, showing a certain tendency towards extending the temporary horizon in both cases. The inflation aversion coefficient value follows the Taylor principle, and, finally, the attached weight by the ECB to the economic growth on setting the interest rates is small.// Los objetivos principales de esta investigación son examinar críticamente la estrategia oficial de política monetaria del Banco Central Europeo (BCE), en sus tres componentes: La definición de estabilidad de precios, el esquema de análisis y la comunicación de sus decisiones y resultados, y el análisis de sus decisiones con el objetivo de descubrir si tras su estrategia oficial subyace una estrategia implícita diferente. El trabajo empírico para explicar las decisiones respecto a las tasas de interés, en el período 1999-2005, adopta tres enfoques: calibrado, intratemporal, e intertemporal con el método de los momentos generalizado. Las conclusiones son claras: el objetivo de inflación implícito se sitúa en torno de 1.9%, muy cerca del 2%, como expuso el BCE en la revisión-explicación de su estrategia en 2003. Se demuestra que el enfoque es hacia adelante (forward-looking) respecto a la inflación subyacente y hacia atrás (backward looking) respecto al ciclo de la producción, con tendencia a alargar el horizonte temporal en ambos casos. Se obtiene pruebas claras de que el valor del coeficiente de aversión a la inflación sigue el principio de Taylor y, finalmente, que la ponderación del crecimiento en las decisiones sobre tasas es reducida.

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Article provided by Fondo de Cultura Económica in its journal El Trimestre Económico.

Volume (Year): LXXVI (1) (2009)
Issue (Month): 301 (enero-marzo)
Pages: 181-214

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Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:76:y:2009:i:301:p:181-214
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