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No estaba muerta … La teoría cuantitativa y la relación entre dinero e inflación


  • Chumacero, Rómulo A.

    (Universidad de Chile y Banco Central de Chile)

  • Hermann, Jorge

    (Universidad de Chile)


This paper presents a robust finding for the relationship between money growth and inflation in Chile: inflation causes (precedes) money and not the other way around. This result holds irrespectively of the way in which monetary policy was conducted, the sample period, the choice of monetary aggregate, the consideration of conditional second moments, or the inclusion of inflation targets. A simple theoretical model is used to motivate why money and inflation are not necessarily correlated.// Este artículo muestra un hecho estilizado robusto en la relación entre dinero e inflación en Chile: la inflación causa (o precede) al crecimiento del dinero y no viceversa. Este hallazgo es robusto a la consideración del tipo de política monetaria, período muestral, agregado monetario, consideración de segundos momentos condicionales o la inclusión de metas de inflación. A su vez, se presenta una motivación teórica de porqué la evolución de los agregados monetarios no necesariamente está asociada a la inflación.

Suggested Citation

  • Chumacero, Rómulo A. & Hermann, Jorge, 2007. "No estaba muerta … La teoría cuantitativa y la relación entre dinero e inflación," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(295), pages 766-787, julio-sep.
  • Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:74:y:2007:i:295:p:766-787

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    money; inflation; causality; dinero; inflación; casualidad;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy


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