IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Modelo de opciones reales y aplicación al mercado petrolero

  • Hernández del Valle, Adrián

    (Instituto Politécnico Nacional, IPN)

  • Martínez García, Claudia Icela

    (Instituto Politécnico Nacional, IPN)

We build a Conditional Real Options model VORC which allows for cashflows to be probabilistic and contingent on the average behavior of an external variable; and we apply our model to the crude oil market where the inflows on an investment project are contingent on the state of the base -the difference between the futures contract on an underlying asset and it's price for immediate delivery at present (or spot price)-. Our main result is that the VORC is a better criteria when evaluating projects with conditional, stochastic cashflows.// Construimos un modelo de opciones reales condicionales (MORC) para la evaluación de proyectos cuando sus flujos esperados son probabilísticos y contingentes al estado promedio de una variable exógena. Aplicamos el modelo al caso de proyectos de inversión en infraestructura petrolera tomando la base -la diferencia entre el precio del contrato a futuro respecto a un bien subyacente y el precio para entrega inmediata (o precio spot) del bien- como variable de estado. Nuestro resultado fundamental es que el MORC resulta un criterio de inversión más confiable cuando se valúan proyectos de inversión con flujos condicionales y estocásticos.

To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

Article provided by Fondo de Cultura Económica in its journal El Trimestre Económico.

Volume (Year): LXXIV (2) (2007)
Issue (Month): 294 (abril-junio)
Pages: 329-348

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:74:y:2007:i:294:p:329-348
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.fondodeculturaeconomica.com/

Order Information: Postal: Order print issues directly in our web page or with Guadalupe Galicia at Fondo de Cultura Económica, El Trimestre Económico, Carretera Picacho Ajusco 227, 6° piso,Col. Bosques del Pedregal, CP 14738, Tlalpan, Distrito Federal, México
Web: http://www.eltrimestreeconomico.com/ Email:


No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:74:y:2007:i:294:p:329-348. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rosa María González Mejía)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.