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Efecto de cambios legislativos en las pensiones de jubilación contributivas. El caso español


  • Balmaseda, Manuel

    (Servicio de Estudios BBVA)

  • Blázquez, Jorge

    (Oficina Económica del Presidente de Gobierno)

  • Martín-Moreno, J.M.

    (Universidad de Vigo)

  • Tello, Patry

    (Banco de España)


In this paper we evaluate the future evolution of the contributed pensions for the Spanish economy through the period 2002-2050. We specify a model that contains the evolution of the fundamental variables of this expenditure. The disaggregation of the total expenditure of the contributed pensions allows us to analyze in detail the features of this variable, as well as, to simulate more precisely the impact of legislative changes.// El objetivo de este artículo es cuantificar para la economía española la evolución futura del gasto en pensiones de jubilación contributivas en el horizonte 2002-2050. Para ello se especifica un modelo en el que dicho gasto es función de la pensión media de las altas, de las bajas, de los pensionistas comunes, del número de pensionistas en cada uno de estos colectivos y del complemento de garantía de mínimos. La descomposición del gasto total en pensiones de jubilación en estos tres grupos permite analizar con más detalle cuál de ellos contribuirá en mayor medida a determinar la evolución futura del gasto, así como simular con mayor precisión el efecto de cambios legislativos.

Suggested Citation

  • Balmaseda, Manuel & Blázquez, Jorge & Martín-Moreno, J.M. & Tello, Patry, 2006. "Efecto de cambios legislativos en las pensiones de jubilación contributivas. El caso español," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(291), pages 611-636, julio-sep.
  • Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:73:y:2006:i:291:p:611-636 DOI:

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Loungani, Prakash & Sheets, Nathan, 1997. "Central Bank Independence, Inflation, and Growth in Transition Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 381-399, August.
    2. Andreas Fischer, 1996. "Central bank independence and sacrifice ratios," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 5-18, January.
    3. Chortareas, Georgios & Stasavage, David & Sterne, Gabriel, 2002. "Monetary Policy Transparency, Inflation and the Sacrifice Ratio," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 141-155, April.
    4. Manfred Gärtner, 1997. "Central Bank Independence and the Sacrifice Ratio: The Dark Side of the Force," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 133(III), pages 513-538, September.
    5. Haan, Jakob de & Kooi, Willem J., 2000. "Does central bank independence really matter?: New evidence for developing countries using a new indicator," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 643-664, April.
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    More about this item


    pensiones contributivas; evolución demográfica; cambios normativos; sistemas de pensiones.;

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination


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