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Globalización, crecimiento y crisis financieras. Lecciones de México y del mundo en desarrollo

Listed author(s):
  • Martínez, Lorenza

    (Banco de México)

  • Tornell, Aarón

    (UCLA y NBER)

  • Westermann, Frank

    (CES ifo (Universidad de Munich e ifo))

Is liberalization in developing countries good for growth even if it leads to crises? The answer is a clear yes. But then, how can we explain the less-than-stellar growth performance of Mexico, a prominent liberalizer and member of NAFTA? In this paper we address these questions by analyzing the empirical link among liberalization, crises and growth. We find that trade liberalization has typically been followed by financial liberalization, which has led to a greater incidence of boom-bust cycles. However, both trade and financial liberalization also have led to higher GDP growth. To substance our interpretation of the data we present a model that shows why in countries with severe credit market imperfections, the forces spawn by liberalization lead to higher growth and, as a by-product, to financial fragility. By comparing Mexico to this international norm, we argue that liberalization and NAFTA have indeed induced higher growth and investment. However, they have not been enough: A lack of structural reform and a protracted credit crunch have generated bottlenecks that have blocked further growth development in the US economy cannot be invoked to fully account for the evolution of the Mexican economy.// ¿Es la liberación benéfica para el crecimiento aunque conduzca a crisis? La respuesta es un contundente sí. Pero entonces, ¿cómo podemos explicar el mediocre desempeño del crecimiento económico en México, un prominente liberador y miembro del TLCAN? En este documento resolvemos estas preguntas basados en el análisis del vínculo entre globalización, crisis y crecimiento. Encontramos que la liberación comercial ha sido seguida en general por la liberación financiera que, a su vez, ha conducido a una mayor incidencia de ciclos auge-crisis. A pesar de esto, tanto la liberación comercial como la financiera han conducido a un mayor crecimiento del PIB. Para sustentar nuestra interpretación de los datos, presentamos un modelo que muestra el porqué en países con severas imperfecciones en el mercado de crédito las fuerzas generadas por la liberación llevan a un mayor crecimiento e indirectamente a la fragilidad financiera. Mediante la comparación de México con esta norma internacional, argumentamos que la liberación y el TLCAN han generado mayor crecimiento e inversión. Sin embargo, éstos no han sido suficientes: la falta de reformas estructurales y la prolongada escasez de crédito han creado cuellos de botella que han bloqueado el mayor crecimiento y llevado a la reciente disminución del crecimiento de las exportaciones. Finalmente, mostramos que el desarrollo de la economía de los Estados Unidos no puede ser considerado como una explicación total del desarrollo de la economía mexicana.

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Article provided by Fondo de Cultura Económica in its journal El Trimestre Económico.

Volume (Year): LXXI (2) (2004)
Issue (Month): 282 (abril-junio)
Pages: 251-351

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Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:71:y:2004:i:282:p:251-351
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