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Las elasticidades ingreso cíclicas y seculares de la demanda de importaciones en los países en desarrollo

  • Clavijo, Fernando
  • Faini, Riccardo
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Introducción. Introducción. Determinar cómo reaccionan las importaciones a los factores cíclicos(de corto plazo) y seculares(de largo plazo) ha sido un tema recurrente en la bibliografía empírica del comercio internacional. La experiencia de varios países demuestra en general que las elasticidades-ingreso cíclicas de la demanda de importaciones son generalmente mayores que las elasticidades seculares(véase Khan y Ross, 1975). Esta diferencia es particularmente marcada en el caso de las materias primas y los bienes intermedios(véase Marston, 1971, y Deepler y Ripley, 1978). Más recientemente, usando el análisis espectral Haynes y Stone(1983) proporcionaron otras evidencias de que las elasticidades-ingreso cíclicas de la demanda exceden generalmente a las elasticidades seculares. Estos hallazgos implican que la elasticidad-ingreso de la demanda de importaciones no es constante sino que variará a lo largo del ciclo económico. Como sostiene Magee(1975), las especificaciones tradicionales de las ecuaciones de importaciones producirán en general estimaciones sesgadas de las elasticidades cíclicas y seculares...

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Article provided by Fondo de Cultura Económica in its journal El Trimestre Económico.

Volume (Year): LVII (1) (1990)
Issue (Month): 225 (enero-marzo)
Pages: 89-100

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Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:57:y:1990:i:225:p:89-100
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