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Commodity prices shocks and the Brazilian economy in the 2000s

Author

Listed:
  • Marcos Tadeu Caputi Lélis

    (Professor do Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia da Unisinos, São Leopoldo/RS, Brasil.)

  • André Moreira Cunha

    (Professor Associado do Departamento de Economia e Relações Internacionais da Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul – UFRGS, Porto Alegre/RS, Brasil.)

  • Priscila Linck

    (Coordenadora de Inteligência de Mercado da Abicalçados, Novo Hamburgo/RS, Brasil.)

Abstract

This paper evaluates how falling commodity prices affected the Brazilian economy during the 2000s. In order to fulfill this objective two different statistical methods were used, the Markov Switching Dynamic Regression model with structural component and the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model. With respect to the level of activities, it was found that about 1/3 of the economic slowdown post 2014 could be attributed to the change in the commodities prices regime. JEL Classification: O11; F44; E32; F63.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcos Tadeu Caputi Lélis & André Moreira Cunha & Priscila Linck, 2019. "Commodity prices shocks and the Brazilian economy in the 2000s," Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Center of Political Economy, vol. 39(3), pages 427-448, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ekm:repojs:v:39:y:2019:i:3:id:95294
    DOI: 10.1590/0101-35172019-2968
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    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development

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