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Turkiye’nin Ihracat Performansi: Ihracat Hacminin Temel Belirleyicilerinin Incelenmesi (1995-2012)

Author

Listed:
  • Mehmet BALCILAR

    (Dogu Akdeniz Universitesi, Isletme ve Ekonomi Fakultesi, Ekonometri Bolumu)

  • Harun BAL

    (Cukurova Universitesi, Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Fakultesi, Iktisat Bolumu)

  • Nese ALGAN

    (Cukurova Universitesi, Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Fakultesi, Iktisat Bolumu)

  • Mehmet DEMIRAL

    (Cukurova Universitesi, Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Fakultesi, Iktisat Bolumu)

Abstract

Bu calismada Turkiye’de ihracat performansi ile reel efektif doviz kuru degismeleri arasindaki kisa ve uzun donemli iliskiler, 1995-2012 donemi ucer aylik veriler kullanilarak incelenmistir. Ihracat performansini etkilemesi beklenen ucret, yurtdisi gelir, verimlilik, GSYH trendi ve doviz kuru oynakligi gibi baska faktorler de modele eklenmistir. Calismanin analiz kisminda ARDL sinir testi yaklasimi izlenmis ve tahmin edilen ARDL modellerine gore degiskenler arasindaki nedensellik iliskileri arastirilmistir. Ulasilan sonuclar, incelenen degiskenlerin esbutunlesik oldugunu gostermektedir. Ihracat performansina iliskin olarak, teorik beklentilerin aksine, reel efektif doviz kuru katsayilarinin anlamli bir bicimde kisa donemde pozitif uzun donemde ise negatif oldugu ve doviz kuru oynakliginin anlamli bir etkisinin olmadigi belirlenmistir. Diger bulgular, Turkiye’de ele alinan donemde yasanan ihracat artislarinin doviz kuru degismelerinden cok ucret, verimlilik ve yurtdisi talep ile aciklanabilecegini gostermektedir. Buna gore sonuc olarak, Turkiye’de ucretleri baski altinda tutan, verimlilik artisini tesvik eden ve yurtdisi piyasalara girmeyi kolaylastiran politikalarin, ihracat sektorlerinde performans ve rekabet artislari saglayabilecegi gorulmektedir.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehmet BALCILAR & Harun BAL & Nese ALGAN & Mehmet DEMIRAL, 2014. "Turkiye’nin Ihracat Performansi: Ihracat Hacminin Temel Belirleyicilerinin Incelenmesi (1995-2012)," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 14(3), pages 451-462.
    • Handle: RePEc:ege:journl:v:14:y:2014:i:3:p:451-462
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    Cited by:

    1. Farrukh Nawaz Kayani & Misbah Sadiq, 2022. "Analyzing the Impact of Inward FDI and Economic Growth on CO2 Emissions of Ukraine," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(5), pages 202-208, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ihracat hacmi; ihracat performansi; ARDL sinir testi yaklasimi; Turkiye.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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