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El Rol del Sector Informal en Bolivia: Una Primera Mirada a Través de un Enfoque de Equilibrio General Dinámico Estocástico

Author

Listed:
  • Valeria Jemio

    (Universidad de Lausana (Suiza))

Abstract

El presente trabajo tiene el propósito de evaluar el rol que desempeña el sector informal en la economía boliviana, analizando la dinámica de las principales variables macroeconómicas ante choques negativos de oferta y demanda en escenarios contrafactuales. Para ello se construye un Modelo de Equilibrio General Dinámico Estocástico (MEGDE) multisectorial, calibrado y estimado con técnicas bayesianas, que considera la presencia de fricciones en el mercado laboral y rigideces nominales à la Calvo. Los principales resultados revelan que el sector informal desempeña el papel de amortiguador de choques (“shock absorber”) en la economía nacional, demostrando que, ante choques negativos de oferta y demanda, existen principalmente menores fluctuaciones en la inflación doméstica y de manera marginal menores repercusiones negativas en el consumo agregado cuando se considera la presencia de un sector informal en ambos casos. Estos hallazgos van en línea con investigaciones similares planteadas para países emergentes como Perú y México.

Suggested Citation

  • Valeria Jemio, 2022. "El Rol del Sector Informal en Bolivia: Una Primera Mirada a Través de un Enfoque de Equilibrio General Dinámico Estocástico," Cuadernos de Investigación Económica Boliviana, Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas Públicas de Bolivia, vol. 5(2), pages 65-116, Diciembre.
  • Handle: RePEc:efp:journl:v:5:y:2022:i:2:p:65-116
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economía Informal; Modelo de Equilibrio General Dinámico Estocástico; Estimación Bayesiana;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

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