Labor supply and migration as household coping strategies: a meta-analysis

This paper presents a meta-analysis of 22 publications reporting 277 regression estimates on how households in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) adjust their labor supply after experiencing negative income shocks due to health- and environment-related events. On average, the estimated labor supply response is small and not statistically distinguishable from zero (d = 0.026). However, heterogeneity is substantial (I2 = 99.12%), and the wide 95% prediction interval (−0.409 to 0.460) suggests that effects vary markedly across contexts. This indicates no reliable evidence that households systematically increase labor supply following income shocks. Much of this variation arises within publications, reflecting differences in model specifications rather than differences between studies. Meta-regression results indicate that households are less likely to increase labor supply or migrate after disaster-related shocks. Gender and regional factors matter: women are less likely to adjust their labor supply, and regional context influences the extent of household responses. Overall, the findings suggest that labor supply is a weak coping mechanism and that gender and local conditions shape how households respond to income shocks, implying the need for targeted interventions and support mechanisms for vulnerable households manage economic adversity.