IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

A stochastic process approach to the analysis of temporal dynamics in transportation networks

  • Cascetta, Ennio
Registered author(s):

    Equilibrium analyses of transportation networks are by their nature "static," with equilibrium configuration defined as "fixed" or "autoreflexive" points, i.e. flow patterns reproducing themselves on the basis of the assumptions made on users' behavior once reached by the system. In this paper it is argued that no transportation system remains in the same state over successive periods because of the action of several causes (e.g. temporal fluctuation of level and composition of demand, users' choices, and travel costs). This implies that the sequence of states occupied by the system over successive epochs or times of similar characteristics (e.g. peak hour of working days) is the realization of a stochastic process, the type of which depends on, among other things, the choice mechanism followed by travelers. Stationarity of the stochastic process within fixed potential demand and network structures is considered to be a desirable property because it allows a flow pattern distribution to be associated to each demand-network system independently of its starting configuration and elapsed time. Furthermore, this stationarity makes it possible to define expected path and link flows and compare them with those of stochastic user equilibrium (SUE). In this paper rather general sufficient conditions for the process stationarity are given, essentially calling for a "stable" choice mechanism of potential users. In the following a particular model of temporal dynamics (STODYN), based upon a number of simplifying assumptions on users' behavior common to most assignment models, is described. Exact and approximate relationships between STODYN steady-state expected flows and SUE average flows are also analyzed both in the case of unique and multiple equilibria. The possible use of STODYN as an assignment model giving unique average flows along with their variances and covariances is then discussed. The model takes into account stochastic fluctuations of demand and can be easily extended to other "dimensions" such as distribution and modal choice. Some results of an empirical analysis comparing STODYN average flows with SUE and observed flows on two urban car networks are also reported.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V99-466CF5X-7Y/2/aceb200cea472ce32e64cf9bce9b43c1
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Transportation Research Part B: Methodological.

    Volume (Year): 23 (1989)
    Issue (Month): 1 (February)
    Pages: 1-17

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:23:y:1989:i:1:p:1-17
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/548/description#description

    Order Information: Postal: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/supportfaq.cws_home/regional
    Web: https://shop.elsevier.com/order?id=548&ref=548_01_ooc_1&version=01

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:23:y:1989:i:1:p:1-17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.