Fare evasion strategies, perceived safety, and travel choices in public transport: evidence from a vignette experiment

Fare evasion poses persistent challenges for public transport systems, with implications for financial sustainability, social norms, corporate image, and perceived safety and security. While deterrence strategies such as increasing inspection frequency or fine severity are widely used, their effects on passengers’ perceptions and behavioural spillovers remain weakly evidenced. This study examines how anti–fare evasion cues influence travel preferences, perceived safety and security, and fare‐evasion intentions, accounting for time of day and competition from a ride‑sharing service (RSS). Four research questions were examined through a vignette‑based randomised experiment. Participants chose among a non‑manipulated bus route, a manipulated route (enforcement or service cue), and an RSS alternative across seven conditions crossing enforcement cues (inspection, fines, neutral) and period (day/night). The results showed that the effects of anti–fare evasion cues were small and statistically uncertain. Neither inspections nor fines produced clear improvements in perceived safety or security (RQ1), and the enforcement type showed no consistent direct effect on the choice of the manipulated route (RQ2). Night-time conditions did not meaningfully change safety or risk perceptions, nor did they reliably moderate the association between perceived route safety and route choice (RQ3). Fare evasion was more frequent at night and less frequent on the manipulated route yet contrasts between Fine and Inspection treatments remained small and imprecisely estimated (RQ4). The RSS garnered only 3.73% choices amid price differentials. Thus, deterrence failed to bolster reassurance or ridership proxies, with choices driven by safety and security perceptions independently of cues. Night primarily led to increased evasion without corresponding gains in safety and security. Policies should pair targeted enforcement with service enhancements, particularly nocturnal, in multimodal contexts.